In its latest market report, K33 Research argues that the cryptocurrency’s long‑celebrated four‑year cycle, once the heartbeat of every major rally and crash, has officially lost its relevance. The reason, according to the firm: Bitcoin has matured beyond the retail‑driven dynamics that defined its early years and entered a new era shaped by institutional capital, government involvement, and macroeconomic policy.
A New Phase for Bitcoin
For most of its history, Bitcoin’s price action revolved around the halving – the scheduled event that cuts mining rewards every four years and reduces supply. Traders built entire forecasts around it, timing rallies and corrections to its cadence. But that predictable rhythm, says K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde, has been overtaken by larger structural forces.
“The idea of a fixed cycle doesn’t match the reality anymore,” Lunde wrote. “Bitcoin now moves to the tempo of global liquidity, not block rewards.”
The shift is already visible in 2025’s market behavior. Bitcoin has surged to record highs in both dollars and euros, setting its first euro‑denominated record since January – a sign that demand is coming from across financial systems, not just speculative traders.
From Dreams to Infrastructure
In past rallies, speculation often drove the market higher until reality caught up. The 2017 peak was fueled by excitement over futures trading, while the 2021 rally ended when ETF dreams were crushed by regulators. But this time, those once‑impossible milestones are real.
BlackRock now manages about $100 billion in Bitcoin ETFs, and Morgan Stanley has opened the door for clients to allocate as much as 4 % to crypto. Even the U.S. government is leaning in, with President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and moves to integrate crypto exposure into retirement portfolios.
According to K33, this institutional presence makes Bitcoin less volatile and more intertwined with broader financial policy. “This isn’t retail euphoria,” the report noted. “This is macro alignment.”
Caution in the Short Term
Still, K33 warned that enthusiasm may have run a bit too hot. Derivatives and ETF inflows spiked by more than 63,000 BTC (around $7.7 billion) in a single week — the largest jump of the year – while CME futures open interest climbed sharply. Historically, such bursts of exposure have preceded mild pullbacks, not full reversals.
Lunde expects consolidation rather than collapse. “The data shows short‑term heat, not a structural top,” he said, pointing out that only two of the firm’s six risk indicators — relative strength and perpetual futures divergence – suggest any caution.
The End of an Era
K33 dismisses the idea that Bitcoin is approaching another “four‑year top,” calling fractal analysis “lazy pattern recognition.” Instead, the firm’s risk model points to a market still well within a healthy phase of expansion.
“The 2025 cycle isn’t a repeat of history,” the report concluded. “It’s a new regime where scarcity, liquidity, and global policy dictate direction. The halving may still exist on paper, but the market has outgrown it.”
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