New on-chain data from Glassnode shows a significant behavioral shift among Bitcoin investors, with mid-term holders leading the current wave of selling pressure while long-term holders gradually take profits. The findings reveal a complex but steady redistribution pattern that could define the next phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle.
Mid-Term Holders Dominate Recent Profit-Taking
Glassnode’s data highlights that investors holding Bitcoin for 6–12 months have been responsible for over 50% of recent sell pressure, especially during the late stages of Bitcoin’s last local top near $126,000.
At that peak, these investors were realizing profits at a rate exceeding $648 million per day (7-day SMA), more than five times their typical activity earlier in 2025. This surge in realized profit indicates that this cohort, which accumulated during the 2024–2025 bull acceleration, is now locking in substantial gains.
Long-Term Holders Increase Gradual Spending
Meanwhile, long-term holders, those with coins aged over a year, have shown a sharp rise in spending volume since mid-July. Their daily spending climbed from roughly $1 billion per day to $2–$3 billion per day by early October.
Unlike the short, intense distribution phases seen in past cycles, this current pattern has been gradual and persistent, suggesting a controlled and mature market environment. This steady outflow implies strategic rebalancing rather than panic selling, often preceding a period of consolidation rather than capitulation.
Accumulation Cohort Faces “Maximum Pain” Zone
The data also points to a potentially vulnerable cohort: those who accumulated Bitcoin between October 2024 and April 2025, particularly around the U.S. election period. Their average cost basis sits between $70,000 and $96,000, averaging roughly $93,000.
According to Glassnode, a breakdown below this $93K–$96K range would mark “maximum pain” for this investor group, likely triggering heightened volatility as unrealized losses expand. Maintaining support above this level could therefore be pivotal for market stability heading into November.
Outlook: Redistribution Continues, but Structure Remains Intact
Despite heavy profit-taking, Bitcoin’s broader on-chain structure remains resilient. Long-term holders continue to dominate overall supply, while mid-term sellers provide necessary liquidity for market resets. Analysts note that such redistribution phases have historically preceded strong recovery rallies once the market absorbs selling pressure.
If Bitcoin holds above the $93K–$96K band, this period could represent a healthy mid-cycle consolidation, setting the stage for renewed upside once selling from the 6–12 month cohort exhausts.