Bitcoin’s ongoing price movement is making waves in the crypto community as analysts continue to track its progress. According to the expert @egragcrypto, the current market structure is significantly different from 2021’s surge, offering a distinct path forward for Bitcoin.
While many investors draw parallels to the 2021 bull market, @egragcrypto insists that this view misses the mark. The 2021 rally came amid a shift in monetary policy, as Quantitative Easing (QE) ended and Quantitative Tightening (QT) began. In contrast, the period of 2025 to 2026 could mirror the cycle of 2019 to 2020. This earlier phase saw QT end, triggering a powerful parabolic expansion driven by returning liquidity. While unforeseen events such as a Black Swan event could disrupt the market, these rare occurrences cannot be predicted or relied upon for regular market behavior.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory
Bitcoin’s price movement is following a broader bullish trajectory, staying within a long-term bull channel. This is key, as @egragcrypto points out that such structures typically indicate continued upward momentum. Macro liquidity is shifting in favor of bullish conditions, further supporting the positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price.
#BTC – Why Everyone Is Looking at the Wrong Fractal 2021 🧠⚡:
🏳Most are screaming: “This looks like 2021!”
No. That’s the biggest mistake in the market right now.
➡2021 = QE ending → QT beginning → Distribution top
➡2025–2026 = QT ending → Liquidity returning →… pic.twitter.com/xU3HcoTzhp
The expert highlights the presence of higher lows in Bitcoin’s recent price action. This signals that the market is not at risk of exhaustion but is likely to continue its upward trend. This indicates that Bitcoin’s current cycle is not nearing an end, but instead is transitioning into a more explosive phase. With this shift, smart money appears to be focusing on the 2019–2020 cycle, while latecomers may still be hung up on the 2021 model.
Bitcoin’s Path to Higher Prices
The chart shared by @egragcrypto provides a roadmap for Bitcoin’s potential price targets. The most optimistic scenario, or “Best Case,” suggests that Bitcoin could reach as high as $365,000. The more immediate target zones include a range between $103,000 and $128,000, with a minimum projection of $173,000.
According to @egragcrypto, the likelihood of a fractal from the 2019–2020 period repeating in the current cycle stands at about 72%. This Blue Box expansion fractal, if it materializes, could drive Bitcoin to new heights, signaling that the market is far from being in a late-stage rally. Instead, we are entering Phase 2, a period marked by explosive price growth.
Investors and traders alike are closely watching these projections, as the broader market conditions shift in favor of higher prices. With liquidity conditions set to improve and structural patterns supporting continued growth, the coming years may offer significant opportunities for those positioned for the next phase of Bitcoin’s bullish journey.