Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to close above a key resistance zone last week after briefly spiking to roughly $93,300. However, BTC failed to stop a mean-reversion trend, with the price dropping below $85,000 on Monday.
Key Observations
- •Bitcoin’s inability to close above $93,000 invalidated the confirmation of a bullish trend reversal.
- •Without fresh spot demand, Bitcoin could range between $80,600 and $96,000 until one of those levels is retested.
Lack of Spot Buyers Flattens Bullish Sentiment
Thin spot liquidity and weak order-book depth are the major culprits in the current difficulty BTC encounters when attempting to move above $93,000. Although a dense cost-basis cluster sits around $84,000, more than 400,000 BTC acquired in this range have effectively formed an onchain floor.
Despite strong historical accumulation, active buying pressure between $84,000 and $90,000 has been absent. Meanwhile, many short-term holders remain underwater relative to their average entry of $104,600, putting the market in a low-liquidity zone.
Data from CryptoQuant showed that the Binance “Bitcoin to Stablecoin Reserve Ratio” has dropped to its lowest level since 2018. This implied an unprecedented build-up of stablecoins ready to buy BTC. Historically, such extreme stablecoin-to-BTC ratios on exchanges have preceded major rallies.
While spot demand remains weak, the stablecoin overhang suggests the buying power to fuel a surge is on hand, but currently sitting idle.
Bitcoin May Remain Sideways Ahead of the Next FOMC Meeting
Bitcoin is now trapped between $96,000 (the top of the recent range) and $80,600–$84,000 (onchain cost-basis floor). Liquidity clusters remained on either side, which means a breakout in either direction could trigger sharp moves.
From a bullish standpoint, a re-test of the lower band near $80,600–$84,000 might be constructive. That would allow BTC to soak up liquidity on the downside, rebuilding a base before a rebound.
Conversely, an immediate retest of $93,000–$96,000 without first gathering liquidity below could backfire as sellers may re-enter, risking further correction in line with the broader downtrend.
Given the current backdrop, a period of sideways consolidation is increasingly likely ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting on December 9–10. With markets watching for signals on US interest-rate policy, traders could remain sidelined rather than chase volatile moves.