Bitcoin enters the final quarter of 2025 amid volatile market conditions, with analysts questioning whether it can outperform the broader crypto market. Historical trends show that both Q1 and Q4 have been favorable periods for Bitcoin. However, Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, argues that the U.S. dollar’s behavior, rather than seasonal trends, will dictate Bitcoin’s path moving forward.
Coutts pointed out that central banks’ recent interest rate cuts have only provided marginal liquidity support for the market. He emphasized that the key factor in Bitcoin’s price movement is the strength of the U.S. dollar. The dollar index (DXY), which has recently stabilized around 98 to 99, is expected to play a pivotal role. Coutts believes that a retest of the 101 level or a decline below the current range will significantly impact risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a tight range, with support and resistance levels being closely monitored. A move above $115,940 could signal a strong bullish case for Bitcoin, setting the stage for higher price targets. Conversely, a drop below $112,820 could lead to further downward pressure, indicating more risks ahead for Bitcoin.
How the U.S. Dollar Shapes Bitcoin’s Future in Q4
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price, Coutts has remained steadfast in his belief that the dollar holds the key to its future performance. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s July peak of $125,000 didn’t display the typical signs of a market top. In previous cycles, these peaks were marked by extreme euphoria, high funding rates, and significant selling from long‑term holders, none of which were observed this time.
Coutts explained that this lack of typical bullish signals suggests that Bitcoin’s market cycle may be slower, with more room for growth. He further indicated that Bitcoin’s real market peak could come closer to mid‑2026, as global liquidity trends and central bank easing continue to provide support.
Meanwhile, Coutts has diversified his portfolio into smart contract platforms like Solana, Sui, and Hyperliquid, as he believes altcoins could start to outperform Bitcoin in Q4 and into 2026. This shift in capital from Bitcoin to altcoins may accelerate as the broader crypto market matures and investors look for more opportunities outside of Bitcoin.
With Bitcoin’s price consolidating at critical levels, all eyes are on the U.S. dollar’s next move. How the dollar behaves in the coming weeks could determine whether Bitcoin reaches new highs or faces further declines in the final quarter of 2025.
