Bitcoin trades at $111,818 on October 13, 2025, down 9% from its October 6 all-time high of $126,210. Yet retail participation tells an evolving story. Despite Bitcoin crossing multiple all-time highs throughout 2025, traditional metrics show unusual patterns. Google search interest sits at 2022 levels. CryptoQuant’s retail activity indicator shows “neutral” readings, unlike historical bull market peaks.
The explanation reveals not an exodus, but an expansion. Retail investors now access Bitcoin through multiple channels, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs having absorbed over $75 billion in assets through 2024–2025, with approximately 75-80% coming from retail investors, while global exchanges continue processing massive volumes for active traders worldwide.“It is certainly true that retail participation is also heavily expressed via ETPs/ETFs since these investment vehicles remain heavily retail dominated. This is evident in the most recent 13F filings in the US which still indicate that the percentage of retail investors in US spot Bitcoin ETFs is close to 75%.”- André Dragosch, the head of research of Bitwise
October 2025: New Highs, New Dynamics
Bitcoin’s October rally showcases this multi-channel reality. The cryptocurrency broke through $120,000 on October 1, reaching $126,210 by October 6. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow of 2025 on October 6 around $1.21 billion, marking day six of a $4.35 billion streak.
CryptoQuant’s retail activity indicator, measuring trading frequency surges and on-chain transactions under $10,000, remained neutral despite new all-time highs. Historically, this indicator flashes red at cycle tops (January 2021, March 2024) when speculative fever peaks.Also, Google Trends data for “Bitcoin” remains at bear market levels despite prices being $110,000+.
The ETF Channel Expands Access
BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has attracted nearly $94 billion in assets since January 2024, solidifying its position as the fastest-growing ETF in history. Collectively, Bitcoin ETFs now control approximately 1.36 million BTC, or 6.5% of total supply, worth about $170 billion.
The ETF appeal is straightforward: tax-advantaged accounts (IRAs, 401(k)s), no private key management, SIPC insurance, and seamless integration with traditional brokerages. A Motley Fool survey found 40% of Americans would consider crypto investments through retirement accounts, a channel only accessible via ETFs.
Exchanges Remain the Trading Powerhouse
While ETFs attract long-term U.S. holders, centralized exchanges remain the backbone of active trading.
Binance alone processes roughly $93 billion in daily volume, about 10–14 times the combined daily trading of all Bitcoin ETFs. Global exchange volumes remain strong, especially outside the U.S.
Asia-Pacific retail activity surged 69% year-over-year to $2.36 trillion in transaction volume, with Binance, OKX, and Bybit leading liquidity for active traders. The pattern is clear: the U.S. dominates ETF adoption ($120B of $180B global total), while Asia-Pacific dominates active exchange trading.
Exchange activity today revolves around three core groups:
- Institutional traders executing block trades and arbitrage
- Global retail investors actively trading Bitcoin in markets without ETF access
- Crypto-native users engaging in altcoin trading, derivatives, and DeFi
The contrast is striking: ETFs hold 6.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply but account for just 4.5% of total trading activity, proving the two channels serve distinct purposes with ETFs for long-term holding, exchanges for liquidity and price discovery.
Two Channels, Different Strengths
The data reveals complementarity, not competition.
ETFs bring regulated, long-term capital into Bitcoin, especially through retirement accounts.
Exchanges drive liquidity, 24/7 global trading, leverage, and access to the broader crypto ecosystem.
For Bitcoin specifically, exchange volumes confirm that active trading remains globally strong. The neutral CryptoQuant readings don’t indicate retail absence; they show retail has matured into multiple access channels. Long-term investors increasingly prefer ETFs, while active traders continue using exchanges.
The Missing Piece: Retail FOMO Hasn’t Arrived
Perhaps most importantly, retail euphoria is still missing. Historically, cycle tops i.e $20K (2017), $69K (2021), $73.7K (2024) came with retail frenzy: record Google searches, viral headlines, and CryptoQuant’s indicator flashing red.
Bitcoin reaching $126K without those signals suggests more room to run.
If institutional and ETF capital can push prices to new highs while retail sentiment stays neutral, the eventual retail chase could drive the next major leg upward.
When that FOMO wave hits, whether at $150K, $200K, or beyond, exchanges will likely see the explosive volume surge that accompanies mainstream speculation, while ETFs continue absorbing steady inflows from passive investors.
While U.S. retail investors have already found their entry point through ETFs, fueling billions in inflows and record adoption, global retail participation remains relatively subdued.
Outside the United States, small on-chain transactions, search trends, and social sentiment remain muted.
This shows that Bitcoin’s rally has so far been powered mainly by institutional capital and U.S.-based ETF demand, not by the global retail enthusiasm that typically defines late-stage bull markets.
When global retail investors re-engage, through exchanges, regional ETFs, or broader access to regulated crypto products, the next expansion phase could accelerate sharply.
U.S. retail is already in; global retail hasn’t joined yet.
And when they do, Bitcoin’s price discovery could move into entirely new territory.
Early Stirrings or Late-Stage FOMO? Reading the Retail Signals
New data now points to the first signs of retail reactivation on centralized exchanges.
Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a meaningful uptick in retail participation on centralized exchanges. Inflows of Bitcoin to Binance from addresses holding less than 1 BTC have climbed sharply in recent weeks, reaching their highest 30-day average in months. This jump suggests smaller investors are once again becoming active—moving coins to exchanges as prices break new highs, a classic signal of retail re-engagement.
Although the inflow volumes from this group remain modest compared with whale activity, the rise marks an early behavioral shift in retail sentiment. As Bitcoin sustains levels above $110,000, these renewed inflows point to retail traders preparing to participate more actively in the market. Combined with persistent ETF demand and institutional inflows, this return of smaller investors reinforces the view that Bitcoin’s current rally still sits in an early expansion phase—before full global retail momentum takes hold.
This aligns with the broader thesis: institutional and U.S. ETF capital have built the foundation, but the global retail wave is still forming. As smaller investors reappear on exchanges, the next stage of market participation could fuel both liquidity and potential upside momentum for Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle.
The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and readers should conduct their own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.