Bitcoin's price has climbed back above $97,000 this week, a move supported by a sustained return of capital into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. This trend suggests a potential structural shift in demand following a period of sideways trading.
Since the start of the year, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have collectively attracted nearly $1.5 billion in net inflows, according to data cited by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. This figure reflects a multi-day stretch of positive creation activity, indicating renewed interest from larger allocators after a period of muted ETF flows at the end of 2025.
Balchunas commented on X that the pattern of ETF demand "suggests that maybe the buyers have exhausted the sellers." This observation relates to Bitcoin's recent breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase around the $88,000 level.
On Wednesday alone, ETF buyers accounted for $843.6 million in net inflows, bringing the weekly total to $1.07 billion and further boosting the year-to-date figure. While these single-day inflows have garnered attention, the broader narrative points to a return of steadier demand after earlier rotations within the investment products.
Institutional Demand and Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles
Bitcoin is rallying at the start of a period that has historically presented challenges for the asset. Market observers frequently refer to Bitcoin's four-year cycles, which are loosely aligned with its halving events. These cycles have typically seen prices peak 12 to 18 months after each supply reduction, a pattern that could suggest the market may have already passed its cyclical high.
While the four-year cycle is not an absolute rule, past market behavior has led many analysts to approach this phase with caution.
The current rebound follows a mixed performance in 2025. During that year, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs but struggled to sustain momentum across the broader crypto market. Despite headline price gains, the rally did not translate into a prolonged "altcoin season," leaving many investors disappointed by the lack of follow-through.
According to Wintermute, a market maker, a structural shift in Bitcoin markets may be necessary to support a broader recovery heading into 2026. In a recent outlook, Wintermute stated that a market-wide rebound would likely depend on continued accumulation by exchange-traded funds and digital asset treasury companies. Alternatively, an expansion of their mandates beyond Bitcoin to include other digital assets could also drive recovery.
Wintermute also highlighted the importance of stronger, more consistent performance across major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, to generate a broader wealth effect.