First Red October Since 2018
Bitcoin had booked its first October loss in seven years, slipping nearly 5% this month and ending a run that had earned the month a “lucky” reputation among crypto traders. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has retreated from record highs as broader markets wobble and investor appetite for risk fades. “Cryptocurrencies came into October tracking gold and equities near all-time highs, and then as uncertainty hit, they didn’t rotate back into bitcoin en masse,” said Adam McCarthy, senior research analyst at market data firm Kaiko. October saw the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and threatened export controls on key software, triggering a wave of deleveraging across digital assets. Bitcoin plunged as low as $104,782 during the Oct. 10–11 selloff, days after setting a new record above $126,000. “That washout reminded people how narrow this asset class still is,” McCarthy said. “Even bitcoin and ether can have 10% drawdowns in 15 to 20 minutes.”
Investor Takeaway
Policy Uncertainty Adds to Pressure
Investors are ending the month wary of the policy outlook as the Federal Reserve resists market bets on further rate cuts. A partial U.S. government shutdown has also delayed key economic data, clouding forecasts for monetary policy into year-end. In equities, top executives have begun warning of stretched valuations. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said earlier this month that the U.S. stock market faces a “heightened risk” of a major correction within the next two years. The comment added to risk-off sentiment already spilling into crypto markets. “Participants remain hesitant as they process what has become the largest liquidation event on record,” said Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute. “Caution persists amid speculation about where the next vulnerability may appear.” Despite October’s setback, bitcoin remains up more than 16% so far this year, supported by renewed institutional interest and policy tailwinds in Washington. The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has coincided with the dismissal of several high-profile lawsuits against exchanges and efforts to draft bespoke digital asset rules.
Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s Next Cycle
Views on bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory diverge sharply. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph that the cryptocurrency could fall as much as 70% in the next market downturn as traders fail to grasp its long-term fundamentals. “Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000,” Budki said at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai. “The problem is that people don’t understand what they’re holding. When investors buy assets they don’t understand, they sell them first — that’s where the pressure comes from.” Even so, Budki projects bitcoin could surpass $1 million within a decade as adoption expands through both speculation and real-world usage. Other analysts argue that bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle has broken down as macroeconomic factors — interest rates, liquidity, and institutional positioning — exert more influence than programmed supply dynamics. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, said the so-called halving cycle is “dead,” adding that price action is now driven mainly by global monetary trends. But others, including Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, maintain that investors still treat bitcoin as a risk asset, keeping the cycle relevant for now.
Investor Takeaway
Institutional Footprint Grows
Institutional holdings now account for nearly 20% of bitcoin’s total supply, or more than 4 million BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. These include exchange-traded funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign-linked funds. Proponents say the growing institutional presence could damp volatility over time, though this month’s swings show the market remains sensitive to leverage and sentiment shocks. As October closes, traders are watching whether bitcoin’s pullback extends into November or stabilizes near current levels around $109,000. With central banks reasserting control over policy and investors cutting risk, crypto markets face another test of whether digital assets can hold ground in tightening financial conditions.