Key Metrics Point to Renewed Accumulation Amidst Bitcoin Consolidation
Bitcoin's Stale Supply Ratio (SSR) metric has recently plunged into a "rebound zone," a pattern historically observed before significant rallies in 2021 and 2024. This development suggests a potential resurgence in Bitcoin accumulation as the cryptocurrency consolidates around the $62,000 level.
Analyst Woo Min Kyu has identified this metric as a critical juncture, potentially representing the "last hope for bulls." According to Woo, a sustained hold within this zone could spark widespread euphoria, while a breach could trigger a prolonged period of downside pressure.
The current lows in the SSR align with price support around the $60,000 mark. If buyers successfully defend this level, upside targets could reach $80,000. Conversely, a failure to maintain this support could see Bitcoin retest the $50,000 level.
Understanding the Stale Supply Ratio (SSR)
On November 4, 2025, Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range between $61,500 and $62,500, showing minimal movement following recent market events. During this period, CryptoQuant reported that the Stale Supply Ratio (SSR) has decreased significantly, re-entering a zone historically associated with market rebounds.
The SSR, a proprietary metric developed by CryptoQuant, measures the ratio of long-dormant Bitcoin supply (held for over six months) that enters circulation compared to the total Bitcoin supply. A low SSR typically indicates strong accumulation, where long-term holders are not selling, and whales are quietly acquiring more Bitcoin. Conversely, a high SSR can signal panic selling from older holdings, often occurring at market cycle peaks.
Woo Min Kyu's analysis, presented on a chart spanning from 2020 to 2025, highlights the significance of the SSR's "rebound zones," typically around 2-3%. These periods have historically preceded major price rallies, including the surge to $69,000 in 2021 and the climb past $100,000 in 2024. The current SSR reading of 2.1% is the lowest since a dip in July, mirroring previous setups where market sentiment shifted rapidly from apathy to strong buying interest.
Analyst's Outlook and Market Context
Woo Min Kyu's analysis suggests that the current SSR behavior could indicate the market is approaching "the last true euphoric rally before the next structural slowdown." This outlook is particularly relevant in the context of the post-2024 halving environment, where Bitcoin's block subsidy was reduced. Despite this, macroeconomic factors such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions have limited upside potential.
On-chain data presents a mixed picture. While Bitcoin's realized cap has reached a new all-time high of $550 billion, signaling strong investor conviction, Glassnode data shows a 20% increase in exchange inflows over the past week, which could indicate some investors are preparing to sell.
The SSR's historical performance, particularly during October's volatility where it bottomed amidst a price drop from $68,000, suggests that the current support level around $60,000, reinforced by the 200-week moving average and previous cycle highs, is crucial.
Potential Scenarios and Market Sentiment
For bulls to capitalize on the current SSR trend, they would need to defend the $60,000 support zone and see the SSR stabilize above 2%. This scenario could lead to a year-end rally towards $80,000, potentially driven by the maturation of spot Bitcoin ETFs and expectations of interest rate adjustments.
However, Woo's bearish outlook remains a significant consideration. A breakdown in the SSR below 2%, a level not seen since the 2022 crypto winter, could trigger a "structural slowdown," leading to a retest of the $50,000 level and substantial declines in altcoin prices.
Market sentiment, as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index at 45 (neutral but showing signs of strain), suggests a cautious approach. The high engagement with Woo's analysis, with over 10,500 views in a few hours, underscores the market's attention to these critical indicators.
Ultimately, the SSR acts as a probabilistic indicator rather than a definitive predictor. As Woo posits, the current period presents a binary choice for the market: significant upside or a prolonged downturn. Given Bitcoin's recovery from previous lows, betting against a potential bounce might seem ill-advised, yet the cyclical nature of the market suggests that peaks often coincide with maximum optimism.