Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley believes the crypto market is approaching the end of a six-month bear phase, arguing that the conditions for a long-term bullish breakout have never looked stronger. Horsley shared his market outlook on X around November 14, 2025, offering a contrarian take as sentiment indicators flash “extreme fear.”
The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead
According to Horsley, investors relying on the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle are following a model from a “bygone era.” He argues that crypto’s old rhythm, driven by retail speculation and halving events, no longer applies to today’s market.
Instead, a new structural regime has emerged.
ETFs and Pro-Crypto Policy Have Changed Everything
Horsley credits two major shifts for transforming the market:
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
The arrival of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs brought an influx of institutional capital and fundamentally changed how Bitcoin is accumulated and traded.
A Friendlier U.S. Regulatory Landscape
The shift toward clearer, more supportive crypto regulation has introduced new participants, from pension funds to corporations, each with different incentives than earlier retail-driven cycles.
Horsley argues that these changes make historical patterns less useful for predicting today’s market behavior.
The Bear Phase Is Almost Over
Despite Bitcoin recently falling to a six-month low near $94,000, Horsley insists the market is at the tail end of a correction that has already lasted roughly six months.
He notes that investor sentiment has turned sharply negative, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently reached “extreme fear” levels, often a sign that a bottom may be forming.
Fundamentals Look “More Promising Than Ever”
Horsley maintains that the long-term setup remains incredibly strong. In his view:
- •Institutional demand remains intact
- •Market infrastructure is more mature
- •Regulatory clarity is improving
- •ETF flows have permanently changed the demand profile for Bitcoin
Despite the current slowdown, he argues that crypto is entering a more sophisticated, resilient phase, one where long-term investors could benefit from accumulated structural tailwinds rather than simple cycle timing.