Bitwise Expert Sees Best Risk-Reward Since COVID

What if the market was massively wrong about bitcoin? For André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, the current context oddly resembles that of March 2020, during the crash caused by the pandemic. In a tense post-halving climate and facing contradictory macroeconomic signals, he believes bitcoin today offers one of its best risk/reward profiles since the health crisis. This statement shakes certainties and reignites the debate on the timing of market entry.

The Return of an Extreme Scenario: When the Bitcoin Market Overvalues Risk

While Bitcoin shows a strong negative correlation with USDT, André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said in a post on X (formerly Twitter): "the last time I saw such risk-reward asymmetry was during COVID".

He refers to March 2020, when the panic linked to the pandemic caused the bitcoin price to drop from nearly $8,000 to under $5,000, before the asset rebounded strongly in the following months.

Dragosch today sees similarities with that period, citing a comparable macroeconomic environment marked by an excessive perception of risk by the market. "We are facing a similar macroeconomic environment," he insists, estimating that the crypto market currently incorporates a far too pessimistic view of global growth.

According to Dragosch, market participants are anticipating a major economic deterioration, even though some macroeconomic signals suggest the opposite. He notes that several negative factors are already priced in. Among these factors are:

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  The prolonged monetary tightening cycle operated by the US Federal Reserve since 2022;
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  The collapse of the FTX platform, which greatly eroded institutional confidence in the sector;
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  The perceived slowdown of the global economy, which Dragosch considers exaggerated in market expectations.

He adds that the delayed effects of post-COVID expansionary monetary policies could support global growth until 2026, as was the case in the years following the health crisis. In this context, Dragosch believes the market currently offers an asymmetrical opportunity favorable to medium-term investors.

Between Market Skepticism and Alternative Scenarios

While Dragosch’s reading suggests a potential opportunity, it is not unanimously shared within the crypto community.

Independent trader Alessio Rastani believes that bitcoin’s current pullback does not necessarily mark the start of a prolonged bearish cycle. According to him, the observed pattern, a peak followed by a significant correction, historically corresponds to a recurring pattern that, in 75% of past cases, preceded a strong rebound. This statistical reading contrasts with prevailing fears, especially as bitcoin lost more than 17% over the last 30 days, briefly falling below $90,000 on November 20th before climbing back above this threshold.

Meanwhile, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, remains confident in bitcoin’s ability to rebound. During a talk on November 27th, he stated he expects the crypto to reach $100,000 by the end of the year or even hit new highs.

This perspective relies, according to him, on a gradual normalization of the geopolitical climate and a return of liquidity to the markets. Such expectations contrast with the current dynamic, marked by a risk-averse climate, reinforced by the announcement of new 100% tariffs on Chinese products by the Trump administration, an event that coincided with a $19 billion liquidation in the crypto market on October 10th.

In an still unpredictable market, bitcoin oscillates between hope for recovery and risk of prolonged correction. André Dragosch’s analysis predicts nothing but highlights an underlying imbalance. It remains to be seen whether this turning point will start a new bullish cycle.