Bitcoin's price experienced a significant decline, and global markets were consequently shaken following U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of extensive tariffs on NATO countries concerning the control of Greenland, which was announced on Saturday.
As a direct consequence of these geopolitical developments, the United States is set to impose a 10% tariff on goods originating from the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland, effective February 1st. This tariff rate is slated to increase to 25% by June.
Analyst Outlook on Bitcoin's Future
While these events have had a negative impact on Bitcoin's performance, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone, who has previously projected a decline for BTC in 2025, has shared his latest analysis.
In a statement made on LinkedIn, Mike McGlone posited that if Bitcoin's price fails to surpass the $100,000 mark, it could signal the end of the current cycle, potentially leading to a fall to $10,000.
“A failed rally in 2025 suggests a cautious short position (bet on a decline) scenario for 2026.”
Staying below $100,000 and failing to rise above it could signal the end of the game/bull run, and a normal pullback towards $10,000 is possible.
The analyst's current perspective views the recent drop below the 200-day moving average, followed by a rebound in early 2026, not as an indication of an uptrend, but rather as a phase demonstrating temporary strength. McGlone further suggested that a correction to $50,000 within the current year would represent a typical pullback.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Value
McGlone concluded his analysis by emphasizing that a recovery in the stock market is a prerequisite for Bitcoin to achieve further value appreciation. He also suggested that precious metals, rather than cryptocurrencies, might be approaching a relative peak this year.
“Bitcoin and gold have provided significant returns over the past decade, but cryptocurrencies have surged excessively last year. Therefore, metals (precious metals) may reach a relative peak this year.”
Furthermore, depending on the progression of these unfolding events, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could potentially face continued downward pressure.