Key Points
- •BLS delays jobs data if U.S. shutdown happens, influencing markets.
- •Kalshi predicts 74% chance of government shutdown.
- •Impact likely on crypto, with heightened volatility expected.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the scheduled jobs report on Friday if the U.S. government shuts down, according to the Department of Labor.
A shutdown would delay vital economic data, affecting macroeconomic policies and increasing volatility in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
BLS Jobs Data Release Delayed Amid Shutdown Risk
If the U.S. government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be unable to release the anticipated jobs report, as announced by the Department of Labor. A 74% shutdown likelihood comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets.
The situation involves the Department of Labor managing the BLS, while Kalshi evaluates shutdown risks. Regular operations will halt if a shutdown proceeds, affecting economic data distribution. Market dynamics will likely see changes.
The halt in jobs data affects macroeconomic decisions and crypto markets significantly. Without the BLS report, asset volatility in major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH may rise, influenced by speculative trading.
Political and financial ramifications include narratives of uncertainty in trading environments. This can cause market swings, especially as traders make decisions without the detailed economic guidance typically provided by official data.
Past shutdowns have caused delays in data releases, impacting market sentiment and causing volatility across sectors. Historical trends suggest potential disruptions in trading practices and heightened risk assessment among market participants.
Data shows shutdowns lead to asset volatility spikes, particularly for crypto. Expect potential shifts in stablecoin demand and derivatives open interest. Enhanced market unpredictability may trigger adjustments in both risk models and trading strategies.
Tarek Mansour, CEO, Kalshi, said, “Odds for a shutdown now at record highs for this Congress. If it happens, expect MAJOR volatility in macro markets — the BLS jobs number delay is unprecedented this cycle.”