The potential for BNB to surpass XRP has gained renewed attention in recent market discussions. In the first week of October, BNB made a push above $1,190, reaching a peak in its market value. Meanwhile, XRP maintains a steady course around $3. Industry conversations revolve around when and under what conditions BNB might overtake XRP. Evaluations utilizing artificial intelligence models suggest a high likelihood of such an event occurring before the year’s end, driven by momentum and fundamental indicators.
Flippening Battle: BNB vs. XRP
BNB’s recent surge is supported by the global reach of its exchange ecosystem, transaction flow on the BNB Chain, and a coin burn mechanism aiming to reduce supply to 100 million. Technically, BNB’s price settling between the $1,100 and $1,190 range keeps a short-term ascent scenario of 20–25% on the table. Simultaneously, XRP, after attempting to peak at $3.65 in mid-July, now finds itself stuck around the $3 mark. Currently, the market seems to favor BNB in the valuation race between the two.
ChatGPT’s findings highlight that “momentum + fundamentals” are leaning in favor of BNB. If the current pace and high on-chain activity persist, BNB is expected to outrun XRP by year-end. Market updates also support this scenario, with spot demand remaining strong for BNB and level for XRP.
XRP’s ETF Approval Could Alter the Landscape
A significant catalyzer on the horizon for XRP could be the approval of a spot XRP ETF in the U.S. Polymarket assigns almost a 100% probability to this happening by year-end. As the official evaluation process continues, the SEC‘s decision alone could shift XRP’s price dynamics significantly. An approval may allow XRP to break free from its current horizontal trend, boosting its market value and re-establishing a lead over BNB.
Currently, Polymarket participants price the likelihood of the SEC approving a spot XRP ETF at over 99%. This expectation, coupled with positive news, could trigger a sudden valuation surge favoring altcoin supporters. Although the SEC’s decision is anticipated in the coming weeks, a partial government shutdown in the U.S. could delay the process.