Key Insights
- •US Jobs data comes in slightly above expectations.
- •Bitcoin price fell to $113K and Glassnode claims BTC options skew keeps climbing, with puts priced at a premium over calls.
- •The CME FedWatch tool showed more than 92% probability of a Fed rate cut by 25 bps in October.
US JOLTS Job Openings data comes in slightly higher than expected at 7.227 million, signaling that the labor market remains relatively resilient despite cooling inflation in the United States. As a result, Ethereum, XRP, and Bitcoin price saw a slight fall on Tuesday.
However, the small uptick in the US Jobs data doesn’t change the broader narrative, but it gives the FED a reason to stay cautious. The labor market resilience means the FED needs to consider pausing rate cuts if inflation comes higher.
Strong US Jobs Data Raises Doubts About October Fed Rate Cut
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the JOLTS Job Openings report on September 30. As per the report, the number of job openings jumped to 7.227 million in August, above the market expectations of 7.2 million.
The US jobs data confirmed a slightly resilient labor market in the United States. This would prompt the Federal Reserve to consider pausing interest rate cuts in October.
At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch Tool showed more than 92% probability of a Fed rate cut by 25 bps on October 29. However, the odds of rate cuts this year stayed at three.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to 97.76 after the US jobs data. The 10‑year US Treasury yield slides to 4.117%, after advancing recently.
The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos revealed that the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers also ticked lower to 0.979 from 0.996 in July.
Considering the 3‑month average, the US jobs data is still favorable for the market as it edged down to the lowest level since the reopening to 7.26 million.
Bitcoin Price Drops
Bitcoin price fell more than 0.5% after the US Jobs data, extending the 24‑hour slide to 1%. The price was trading at $113,060 at the time of writing, with an intraday low and high of $112,740 and $114,836, respectively.
However, trading volume increased by 11% in the last 24 hours, indicating uncertainty persists among traders.
CoinGlass data revealed selling in the derivatives market. At the time of writing, the total BTC futures open interest fell 2.20% to $80.07 billion in the last 24 hours.
The 4‑hour BTC futures OI on CME and Binance fell 0.10% and 0.11%, respectively. This signals cautious trading among derivatives traders.
Glassnode revealed that BTC Options 25‑Delta Skew (1 month) keeps climbing, with puts priced at a premium over calls.
This indicates that big players continue to hedge for downside protection after the largest Bitcoin options expiry last week. Besides, the latest US Jobs data also sparked discussions in the market.
Traders are paying up for downside protection, reflecting near‑term caution, while upside momentum looks favorable with implied volatility still near historic lows.
