The U.S. Commerce Department is preparing to greenlight Nvidia’s H200 chip exports to China. This marks one of the most significant policy shifts in the ongoing U.S.–China tech conflict — and markets are already reacting.
Nvidia’s stock jumped +2.2% immediately after the news hit, signaling investor confidence that export restrictions may be easing.
While Reuters has not yet independently confirmed the move, sources indicate the plan has been under discussion for weeks, following a broader diplomatic thaw.
A Softer U.S. Approach? Trump–Xi Truce Sets New Tone
The development comes shortly after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a temporary truce in the trade and tech war during a summit in Busan, South Korea last month.
The decision to allow H200 shipments suggests:
- •A friendlier U.S. stance toward China in high-end tech cooperation
- •A rollback of several Biden-era export limits
- •Renewed priority on stabilizing U.S.–China economic relations
However, Washington hawks are raising concerns. Many warn that exporting advanced AI chips could boost China’s military capabilities, which was the original reason behind the restrictions.
The U.S. Commerce Department and Nvidia have not yet issued any public comment.
Why the H200 Chip Matters
The Nvidia H200, unveiled two years ago, is far more powerful than the widely-restricted H100.
Key advantages:
- •Significantly more high-bandwidth memory
- •Faster data processing speeds
- •Nearly 6× the power of the H20, currently the most advanced AI chip legally exportable to China
A new report from the Institute for Progress highlights that the H200 could allow Chinese AI labs to build supercomputers nearly matching U.S. capabilities — though at higher cost.
This shift could accelerate:
- •China’s AI research
- •Competition in AI model development
- •Global supercomputing race
Trump had previously threatened new export controls on tech but has rolled them back in multiple cases, particularly as China tightened its own restrictions on rare earth minerals.
How This Shakes Global Markets
The immediate market reaction:
- •Nvidia surged, signaling optimism for restored China revenues
- •Tech stocks saw mild upward pressure
- •AI-related sectors are expected to rally if export approvals are confirmed
The broader narrative is clear: U.S.–China tech decoupling may be slowing down — or entering a new phase of selective cooperation.
Crypto Market Impact: What to Expect Next
While the decision is not directly crypto-related, AI and tech policy shifts often ripple into the digital asset market. Here’s how:
1. Improved Risk Sentiment
A thaw in U.S.–China tensions reduces macro uncertainty. Crypto thrives when global markets relax → $Bitcoin, $ETH, and large caps may see a sentiment boost.
2. Stronger AI-Crypto Narratives
Tokens tied to AI — such as RNDR, FET, AGIX, NEAR, and AI-computing chains — historically pump on Nvidia-related news. Allowing H200 exports boosts global AI capacity → AI coins could rally.
3. Liquidity Flows Into Tech and Crypto
If tech stocks rise, crypto often follows due to correlated risk-on behavior. Expect traders to rotate into:
- •BTC, if macro sentiment strengthens
- •SOL and ETH as high-beta tech-correlated plays
- •AI-narrative tokens
4. Renewed China Narrative
Even though crypto is banned on the mainland, news that signals stronger U.S.–China cooperation often triggers:
- •Speculation around future crypto-friendly regulation
- •Increased activity in Hong Kong markets
- •Higher Asian trading volumes
This typically benefits Bitcoin during Asian market hours.