Rather than calling for an immediate collapse or a guaranteed rally, the analyst says that the current setup can lead to a strong recovery in the near term, but what happens after the bounce will determine the direction of the next several months.
A Rally Could Come First — Then the Real Test
Colin expects Bitcoin to stage a sizable move upward next, arguing that conditions for a “big bounce” are building. If that happens, altcoins are likely to outperform Bitcoin on percentage terms, potentially triggering short-term excitement across the market.
But the key question is what the bounce represents. A powerful rally could either:
- •mark the start of a new push toward fresh all-time highs, or
- •serve as a temporary rebound inside a broader downtrend.
Colin notes that both outcomes are plausible at this stage.
Portfolio Positioning Signals Caution
The analyst shared that he is maintaining an extremely defensive allocation — with 96% of his portfolio tied to Bitcoin. He said this is not because he dislikes altcoins, but because if the market enters a deeper downturn, alternative assets consistently fall much harder than BTC.
In his view, holding a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio offers better protection against uncertainty while still allowing exposure to upside if a breakout occurs.
A Rare Secondary Scenario
While not his base prediction, Colin does entertain the possibility of a short “mini bear market.” In this version of events, Bitcoin would:
- •decline further, but not crash like in previous cycles
- •bottom out sooner than expected
- •begin a new multi-year rally alongside broader economic expansions in 2026
He assigns this scenario a low probability — around 15%.
No Signs of Cycle Exhaustion Yet
Despite recent selling, Colin does not believe Bitcoin has entered the “overheated mania” phase that typically precedes long-term tops. For that reason, he says the macro cycle is not necessarily finished — but the next bounce will reveal whether bulls still control the narrative.