Historical Patterns Shape the Current BTC Structure

BTC shows a repeating pattern across multiple market cycles, according to chart observations shared by Ted (@TedPillows). He draws a comparison between the 2025 configuration to structures in 2014, 2017, and 2021, and the way the price dynamics around the daily SMA-200 influenced every decline. In every cycle, a major top formed, followed by a breakdown and later a relief rally toward the declining moving average.

During 2014, BTC formed a rounded top before breaking lower and eventually rallying toward the SMA-200. That move touched the average as it turned downward, creating the rejection that defined the next leg lower. This pattern positioned the SMA-200 as a structural point tested in transitional phases.

The 2017 cycle displayed a near-identical rhythm. After the surge toward the $20K region, BTC fell sharply and later advanced toward the same moving average. The test beneath the declining line produced a sharp reversal, marking the largest capitulation wave of that period. The consistency of these touches became a reference for later cycles.

Current BTC Position Near the SMA-200 Zone

The 2021 structure followed the same path. After topping near $69K, BTC trended lower and advanced back toward the declining SMA-200 in mid-2022. Price tapped the average and turned sharply, beginning the final decline toward the $15K region. Ted notes that this repeating pattern remains intact today.

The 2025 chart shows BTC falling from the $126K region and entering a relief phase. The SMA-200 now sits near $109K while moving downward. Ted suggests that BTC could rally toward the $100K–$104K range, echoing earlier cycles where price moved close to the declining average before reversing. This aligns with the structural tendency seen across prior market corrections.

The pattern suggests BTC may revisit regions beneath the SMA-200 even without touching it directly. Historical behavior shows the average acting as a gravitational point during corrective rallies. The current setup remains consistent with these earlier retracement structures.

Long-Term Chart Shows BTC in Higher Structural Ranges

BTC trades near $92,472 on the long-term chart, sitting close to its upper historical levels. The visual progression shows exponential expansion phases followed by steep but higher-floor corrections. This structure reflects the asset’s movement through broader adoption cycles.

Early years on the chart appear compressed due to low price ranges, though volatility was strong. As cycles progressed, BTC entered higher structural zones, with the 2017 peak beginning the first clear expansion visible at scale. Later cycles expanded these ranges further during recovery phases.

The latest section covering 2023–2024 shows BTC advancing from the $15K region into a new growth band. Activity around major institutions and market stability adds background context to this phase as BTC trades close to historical peaks. The structure places the asset within another upward expansion zone while maintaining familiar cyclical behavior.