Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with its bull market at stake, as BTC price predictions vary widely.
- •Bitcoin traders are experiencing a mix of hope and capitulation as the BTC/USD pair returns to its yearly open level.
- •The price is targeting a significant "magnet" in the form of an old CME futures gap from April.
- •The loss of a key trend line is drawing comparisons to historical bear markets, with a substantial support reclaim still distant.
- •Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a "leveraged tech stock," showing a disappearance of its correlation with gold.
- •Cryptocurrency sentiment has reached joint 2025 lows, deeply entrenched in "extreme fear."
BTC Price Reverses 2025 Gains
Bitcoin fell back to its yearly open level by the weekly close on Sunday, dipping below $93,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Trader reactions were notably mixed, with overtly bearish forecasts interspersed with hopes for a swift market rebound.
$BTC 1M
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) November 16, 2025
It’s cooked.
76k is next. pic.twitter.com/Wm7G1jmAah
“Binance whales have placed big buy orders between $88,500-$92,000 level,” trader BitBull warned in his latest exchange order-book analysis on X.
“I know a lot of people are calling for a local bottom, but $BTC could sweep the $88K-$90K zone.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass indicated that price was being supported by a line of bid liquidity overnight, with overall liquidity conditions preparing for the next breakout attempt.
Commenting on the situation, crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe highlighted liquidity as a crucial factor for future price action.
“Ideally, I want to see a fast move back up on $BTC is what I'd prefer to see,” he told X followers on the day.
“We swept the low over the weekend, which means that I'd want to see a higher low being created here. If that happens, then there's trillions and trillions of short liquidity ready to be taken out.”
Continuing with a more optimistic outlook, trader Crypto Tony expressed appreciation for the rebound in BTC/USD following the recent local lows.
$BTC / $USD - Update
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) November 17, 2025
Very nice recovery last night. I was stopped out of my short in profit. Now i am now looking for shorts up at key levels. $106,000 - $108,000 look attrative pic.twitter.com/Tt13cyyPoT
“The next key level for Bitcoin to reclaim is $98,000 as it'll increase the chances of a local bottom,” added crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows.
CME Futures Gap Remains Just Out of Reach
A significant short-term target for BTC price action is now tantalizingly close for market participants.
The "gap" in CME Group's Bitcoin futures market, which originated in April, is situated just below the current local lows.
This gap, spanning from approximately $91,800 to $92,700, has been on the radar ever since BTC/USD began retreating from its all-time highs in mid-October.
While the weekly close brought Bitcoin very close to filling this gap, it remained unfilled at the time of writing.
“There’s a clear CME gap sitting at $91.9K–$92.5K and you already know how this game works,” trader Hardy told X followers in a post on the subject. “Whales want their orders filled before the next leg. Expect the dip, embrace the volatility and get ready for the bounce once that gap is taken. Textbook move loading.”
Hardy referenced the market's tendency to "fill" futures gaps, which typically form over weekends and have historically acted as short-term magnets for price. The April gap stands out as an anomaly, having remained untouched for over six months.
“The 92k region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, increasing the odds of a short-term technical bounce if tested,” trading resource QCP Capital noted in its latest "Asia Color" market update. “Yet, as seen over the past few weeks, dense overhead supply could limit the strength of any rebound.”
Major Trend Line Breakdown Fuels Bear-Market Concerns
The CME gap is far from the only critical level occupying traders' attention this week.
In a notable divergence, BTC/USD has now lost its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) as support.
The most recent weekly candle close saw the price finish significantly below the 50-week SMA, which is currently positioned around $102,850.
This development did not go unnoticed. X trading account The Swing Trader emphasized the unusual nature of the price's interaction with what is typically a robust support line.
“And this is very important because Bitcoin has never lost the 50-week MA and still been in a bull cycle,” the account stated in video analysis.
Bitcoin has only lost the 50-week trend line on four occasions in its history, making this move characteristic of bear markets. No weekly candles have closed below this level since March 2023.
“Every single cycle, the 50-week MA holds for four years and then we finally lose it,” The Swing Trader elaborated, describing Bitcoin as "technically breaking down."
QCP added that the breach of the trend line "reinforces a medium-term bearish bias," but cautioned that a bearish trend reversal would depend on even lower support levels at $88,000 and $74,500.
“For now, crypto’s bull cycle hangs in the balance. A short-term bounce may come, but the path of least resistance remains lower,” they concluded.
Considering the exponential moving average (EMA) equivalent of the 50-week SMA, the situation appears even more concerning.
As noted by trader Jelle, the "cloud" formed by the 50-week SMA and EMA has not failed as support since BTC/USD was trading at $22,000.
“Trend officially lost,” he summarized.
#Bitcoin is back below the 50-week MA/EMA cluster- for the first time since prices were at $22,000.
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) November 17, 2025
Trend officially lost. pic.twitter.com/pt93ykp8Lg
Crypto Diverges from Risk-Asset Trend
On a macroeconomic level, commentary has focused on crypto's unusual behavior in comparison to the broader risk-asset environment.
Amid discussions of Japan implementing significant economic stimulus as part of a global liquidity boost, stock futures remained "completely unfazed" by the weekend crypto drop, as noted by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
“Even as crypto has lost -$100 billion since Friday, US stock market futures are GREEN. Meanwhile, gold just opened above $4,100/oz and yields are on the rise,” it stated in an X post.
This recent action continues an established pattern: unlike stocks, crypto did not benefit from the reopening of the US government last week.
Kobeissi's data highlighted the paradoxical effect of seemingly positive news on crypto market performance throughout October and November.
“The isolated nature of the -25% crypto downturn further supports our view: This is a leverage and liquidation-based crypto ‘bear market,’” the post continued, characterizing Bitcoin as trading like a "leveraged tech stock.”
“A bottom forms when market structure is re-established.”
With the correlation between Bitcoin and gold now "essentially zero," analysis of large-cap technology stocks is becoming more relevant for understanding crypto volatility.
“Bitcoin’s correlation to US technology stocks has rarely been higher: The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index hit ~0.80, the highest since 2022,” Kobeissi observed.
“This is also the 2nd-highest reading over the last 10 years. Correlation has remained positive over the last 5 years, except for brief periods in 2023.”
Meanwhile, the week's macroeconomic data releases are focused on employment figures—readings that were notably absent during the US government shutdown.
Partially due to this lack of data, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now uncertain about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on December 10.
Extreme Fear Takes Hold
In a clear indication of the current lack of belief in a crypto market comeback among average traders, sentiment toward both Bitcoin and altcoins has collapsed.
The latest figures from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirm that the prevailing mood is lower than at any point since late February.
At that time, the Index also set a 2025 low of just 10/100, firmly within its "extreme fear" bracket. In stark contrast, just six weeks ago, it measured 74/100, bordering on "extreme greed."
Commenting on the situation, trader Daan Crypto Trades drew parallels between the current atmosphere and the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX in 2022, which occurred towards the end of the previous crypto bear market.
“This metric is in no way actionable. It can sit at greed for months while markets keep rallying, just as it can sit at the fear levels for a prolonged period of time,” he acknowledged on X. “But it is still interesting to see how quickly things can change around from greed to fear and the other way around. Especially in crypto, things can turn really fast as we all know.”
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on how crowd sentiment can offer insights into potential crypto market reversals.
Now, research platform Santiment suggests that a resurgence of interest in Bitcoin could signal a potential bull market.
“Though not a guaranteed crypto bottom signal, probabilities of a market reversal greatly increases when social dominance for Bitcoin surges,” it wrote on X Sunday, accompanied by proprietary data. “During Friday's dip below $95K, discussion rates hit a 4-month high, signaling severe retail panic & FUD.”
