After breaking out from the $94,500 horizontal resistance on Tuesday, the Bitcoin price has been in an up and down struggle between the bulls and the bears. Given the breakout momentum, the bulls were able to force the price up to just short of $98,000. However, this momentum does appear to be faltering. Can the bulls still push the price up to $100,000, or will the bears pull the price back down for another retest of the breakout?
Upside Price Momentum Starting to Falter?
Looking at the short-term chart for BTC, it does rather look like the breakout is running out of steam. The short trendline that the price followed has now been confirmed as having broken down, as a red candle went below and the next green candle rose to touch the underside of the trendline and confirm the breakdown.
Could this trendline still be regained? Yes, this is a possibility. Either this candle or a following one could push up above the trendline again, establishing this breakdown as a fakeout.
As things stand, the bulls are attempting to get back on track again, and it just remains to be seen if they can do so. The measured move out of the bull flag has already been hit, so probably the best outcome, at least until short-term momentum can reset, is for a rise to around $100,000. Although a decent pullback from there might be expected before the price goes higher.
RSI 14-Month Downtrend Breakout
The daily chart shows how the BTC price is heading to the band of resistance from around $99,000 up to $101,000. It’s to be wondered whether a pull back might take place from there, or if the price might get above and then consolidate for a period of time before the leg up to the all-important $108,000 horizontal resistance level.
Will it get to any of these levels? The Relative Strength Index at the bottom of the chart is suggesting that it might. A downtrend has been in force since November 2024. Be that as it may, with the breakout of the ascending triangle and the $94,500 resistance level in the price action, the RSI indicator line has also broken out beyond the downtrend, and is in the process of testing the breakout. If this is successful, it can be imagined that the rally in the price action will continue.
Stochastic RSI on 2-Week Time Frame Suggests Huge Rally Has Begun
The 2-week chart for BTC illustrates how every time the Stochastic RSI in this time frame makes a cross up of the indicator lines, a huge rally ensues. We witnessed a new cross up of the blue fast line over the orange slow line in early December, so this process is already in its early stages.
The weekly Stochastic RSI indicators are slightly more advanced, and have just crossed the 20.00 level. Once the 2-week indicator lines do the same thing, the resulting upside price momentum could carry the price back to the 8-year trendline. This does not look like a bear market relief rally.