Prior to the release of key economic data, Bitcoin (BTC) was keenly awaiting U.S. unemployment figures, a development that coincided with increased market volatility. The significance of these reports was amplified by delays in numerous other government publications due to a shutdown, placing extra emphasis on the less frequently released data leading up to the December 10 interest rate decision. Yesterday's ADP report provided indications that supported the possibility of a rate cut and suggested dovish statements from policymakers. The market's attention then turned to the latest unemployment figures.
U.S. Economic Data Release and Market Impact
The ADP report released yesterday indicated a notable weakening in the labor markets, a trend that had not been observed for a significant period. Today, the expected figures for both new and continuing unemployment claims have been published. Consequently, the price of BTC has experienced heightened volatility in the minutes surrounding the report's release. Immediately before the report's release, the probability of an interest rate cut stood at 89.2%, according to data from CME-FedWatch.
The following are the expected and actual figures for unemployment claims:
- •U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Reported: 191K (Expected: 220K, Previous: 216K)
- •Continuing Unemployment Claims Reported: 1.939M (Expected: 1.962M, Previous: 1.96M)
The released figures were not particularly favorable for cryptocurrencies. If the claims had surpassed last month's figures and market expectations, it could have provided support for crypto assets. While the lowest unemployment claim figures of the past year were observed, this does not negate the contractionary trend signaled by other labor reports. Furthermore, end-of-year reports typically show lower figures than the year's average, a pattern clearly illustrated in the provided data.
Although the data is not overwhelmingly negative for cryptocurrencies, it also does not offer strong support. The cryptocurrency market currently remains in a neutral position, awaiting further market movements and developments.