Bitcoin is trading at $92,114.75, marking a 6.27% gain and recovery over the last seven days. This recovery follows a bearish month that has resulted in a 10.11% price drop in the last 30 days.
Amid this recovery, a key metric indicates a different story. Traders are now focusing on the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio support that Bitcoin is currently testing. Renowned analyst Ali has pointed out that when Bitcoin falls below this ratio, it often gravitates towards its Realized Price.
That level stands at $56,355. This support has held during past market resets, leading many traders to question whether it still carries the same weight in a cycle influenced by ETF flows, sovereign accumulation, and reduced miner capitulation. The current setup prompts this question.
Realized Metrics Resemble Early 2022 Conditions
Glassnode data reveals rising on-chain stress. The supply quantiles cost basis tracks the cost basis of top buyers. Bitcoin is currently trading below the 0.75 quantile, which is near $96,100. This drop means that more than 25% of the supply is now underwater. A break below this same quantile previously marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market. Current conditions reflect increasing pressure on buyers who entered the market at cycle highs.
The total supply in loss, measured on a seven-day moving average, has reached 7.1 million Bitcoin. This figure is at the upper boundary of the 5 million to 7 million range observed in early 2022. The surge in supply held at a loss signifies growing strain on holders who bought during recent periods of strength.
The realized cap net change still indicates capital moving into the network, with net inflows standing near $8.69 billion per month. This inflow trails the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, highlighting weakening conviction even though the metric remains positive.
ETF and Spot Market Activity Shows Declining Appetite
Off-chain indicators present a similar trend, with ETF inflows continuing to slow. IBIT has recorded a sixth consecutive week of outflows, with total redemptions exceeding $2.7 billion over the past five weeks. This streak represents the longest negative run since IBIT's launch in January 2024. This flow pattern suggests a softening demand from institutions that were prominent in earlier phases of the cycle. Since the start of December, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of $87.77 million.
Spot market liquidity is also softening. The cumulative volume delta has rolled over. Binance CVD trends negatively over an extended period, indicating sustained selling pressure in aggressive order flow. The Coinbase premium appears set to roll over again after a brief positive turn that followed a long negative stretch. This shift suggests less aggressive buying from US-based investors.
FOMC Expectations Inject Macro Uncertainty
Macroeconomic conditions add another layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve has acknowledged that policy remains modestly restrictive. Officials hold differing views on the risks associated with inflation and employment, and market expectations are fluctuating significantly ahead of the December 10 FOMC meeting.
Comments from Chair Jerome Powell following the October 29 decision generated uncertainty. Powell indicated that a December rate cut was not highly probable. Minutes from that meeting revealed that many members were leaning against another cut. A government shutdown delayed data collection, leaving fewer indicators available before the December meeting. By November 19, markets were pricing in only 7 basis points of a full 25-basis-point cut.
Bitcoin traders are now closely monitoring how the Fed's next move will influence liquidity, risk appetite, and ETF demand. Rising on-chain stress, softening inflows, and macro uncertainty are creating an environment that requires careful attention as Bitcoin hovers near crucial long-term support metrics.