Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $99,000 on Tuesday, breaching a key macro indicator and reigniting debate over the market’s state. The cryptocurrency dipped below the 365-day moving average (MA), a technical indicator tracking BTC's average price over the past year to identify trend direction.
Julio Moreno, head of research at data analytics platform CryptoQuant, stated that this was the final confirmation of the start of the 2022 bear market. He emphasized that the price needs to cross back above the 365-day MA quickly. According to Coinbase data, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $99,000 on Tuesday, touching multimonth lows around $98,900. At the time of publication, Bitcoin had slightly recovered and was trading around $101,800.
A Point of Breakdown?
The 365-day MA is considered by market observers to be one of the most important moving averages for gauging Bitcoin sentiment. A price drop below this metric is widely viewed as a strong bearish signal.
This is not the first time Bitcoin has slipped below its 365-day MA this year. Data shared by crypto analyst Decode indicates that BTC price briefly dropped below this metric in April.
“Routine Cleanse”
Andri Fauzan Adziima, a research analyst at Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's Tuesday dip has "officially marked a technical bear market" as the BTC price dropped more than 20% from its all-time highs above $126,000 in early October.
Adziima described this as "merely the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle, a routine cleanse, not the onset of a prolonged winter." He pointed to historical data supporting 40% rebounds within 60 days after 20% drawdowns in a bull market.
Tom Cohen, head of investments and trading at quantitative asset manager Algoz Technology, stated that for this to be a bear market for BTC, the line in the sand at $100,000 would have to be well broken before that scenario could come into play.
Cohen added, "While that $100,000 barrier exists, it’s just as possible we are setting up for a Santa Clause rally. Much of that of course is dependent on macro events and what President Trump has up his sleeve in the coming weeks and of course the US Rate Decision in December."