Key Levels and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a narrow trading range as it approaches a crucial weekly close, with the $100,000 support level being a significant point of contention. The future trajectory of the bull market remains uncertain, with analysts pointing to ongoing selling pressure from large holders, often referred to as "whales."
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView illustrates a period of inertia in BTC price action over the weekend. While volatility has been subdued, market participants are closely watching the formation of the weekly candle.
Trader Titan of Crypto identified $103.5K as a key level for the week, based on Fibonacci retracement levels. He suggested that a weekly close below this point, while not immediately dramatic, could signal the end of the bull market if a confirmed breakdown occurs in the following week.
Other market observers are focusing on the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently situated around $100,940, as a critical indicator of strength. Trader Max Crypto emphasized the importance of maintaining a weekly close above this level, stating, "We don’t want a weekly close below this at any cost."
The potential for a "death cross" on the daily chart, where the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the 200-period SMA, has also drawn attention. Trader SuperBro noted that this would be the fourth "death cross" of the current bull cycle, recalling that previous occurrences have been followed by market reversions and sustained bottoms. He added, "But so far, a lukewarm reaction at the 365 SMA. Let's see if bulls can get it together and reclaim the Q3 low for the weekly close."
"The 4th ‘death cross’ of the bull cycle is approaching. Each time we’ve seen reversion to the mean and a sustained bottom. But so far, a lukewarm reaction at the 365 SMA. Let's see if bulls can get it together and reclaim the Q3 low for the weekly close."
External Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Trajectory
Beyond technical indicators, the cryptocurrency market is closely monitoring developments regarding the United States government shutdown. There is growing anticipation that lawmakers will work towards ending the impasse, especially as its economic impact becomes more pronounced.
Additionally, an upcoming decision from the US Supreme Court regarding international trade tariffs could provide an immediate boost to the stock market. This potential positive sentiment could spill over into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Cas Abbe, a contributor to the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that an end to the government shutdown could lead to a market "expansion." He shared a chart indicating that the resolution of the shutdown might also coincide with the end of a perceived "manipulation" phase in BTC price action.
However, crypto investor Ted Pillows expressed caution, noting that if market expectations for the shutdown's resolution are not met promptly, BTC price could decline. He stated, "BTC is still consolidating around the $102,000 level. The markets were expecting the end of the government shutdown this weekend, but it didn’t happen."
"I still think Bitcoin could go a bit lower, given that institutional demand has gone and OG whales are selling."
Pillows' concern is amplified by the sustained selling pressure from Bitcoin whales that has been observed throughout the year, a trend previously reported by Cointelegraph.