Cardano (ADA) price action was on track to conclude October 2025 on a bearish leg, but the big question is whether history will repeat itself. While the markets have struggled to find a bullish footing this week, the Cardano-native coin demonstrated an interesting correlation with its October 2024 performance. ADA price favored the bears by about 8% in October 2024. It has similarly delivered an overall bearish performance in October 2025, but with more intensity, judging by its 24% plus monthly downside. The ADA coin saw a $2.3 billion drop in market capitalization since Monday. It has been leaning in favor of the bears this week, consequently giving up its gains from last week. Nevertheless, something noteworthy happened in the last 24 hours.
Cardano (ADA) Price Retests 12-Month Support Level
ADA coin tanked as low as $0.27 during the flash crash on October 10. However, the price quickly snapped back and closed above its 12-month ascending resistance. It has since then bounced back multiple times from the same support level. Cardano exchanged hands at $0.61 at press time, which was right on the same support level.
ADA crypto has been forming a long-term wedge pattern underpinned by the aforementioned support and descending resistance. Its price has been pushing deeper into the tight zone of the wedge, suggesting that a pattern break could be imminent. The Cardano native cryptocurrency followed up its bearish October 2024 performance with an aggressive bullish comeback. For context, ADA price pulled off a 300% plus rally from November to December 2024. ADA price may pull off another explosive rally in the remaining two months of 2025, especially now that the liquidity situation has been improving. Another 300% rally from its current position means Cardano might rally above $1.8.
Such a huge price rally suggests that the cryptocurrency may require a major catalyst. The Altcoin ETF narrative has been taking shape lately. However, the probability of a Cardano ETF approval before the end of 2025 was down to 69% at the time of observation.
The possibility of a Cardano ETF was as high as 96% at the end of September. The declining probability was likely due to the U.S. government shutdown.
Analyst Predicts Further Decline Before Recovery
X-based crypto analyst Ali just predicted that ADA will extend its decline to the $0.55 price level. Such an outcome was not far-fetched considering that longs might start piling up near the current support level. Further downside would ensure a liquidity sweep before the market embarks on recovery.
The same analyst previously predicted that ADA price would likely rally towards the $1.70 price level. His prediction was in line with the expected wedge pattern breakout. Ali’s Cardano (ADA) price prediction means the cryptocurrency would have to rally significantly higher than its 2024 peak. However, that may not be far-fetched considering that the cryptocurrency has historically rallied much higher. ADA’s historic top above $3 may feed into the sentiment that it might still be heavily discounted at its current price level. For reference, ADA would have to rally by over 400% to retest its current historic high achieved during the 2021 bull run.