With the U.S. government shutdown stretching through October, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has gone quiet, leaving high-profile crypto ETF applications hanging in bureaucratic limbo.
Investors had been expecting decisions this week on several pending filings – including Grayscale’s Cardano ETF and three separate spot XRP funds. Instead, the silence from the SEC has fueled frustration and uncertainty across the crypto market, as the regulator struggles to operate at reduced capacity.
A Market Stuck in Pause
For the past month, the federal shutdown has paralyzed multiple government agencies, but the impact has been particularly visible in the financial sector. With limited staff available, the SEC’s ability to process ETF paperwork has slowed to a crawl.
According to Andrew Jacobson, a former legal head at 21Shares and current advisor at Halliday, the situation could change quickly once Washington resolves its political standoff. “When the lights come back on, we’ll probably see a surge of ETF approvals in a short period,” he noted, describing the autumn period as “crunch time” for financial product launches.
That surge, however, depends entirely on when lawmakers end the impasse.
The Longest Wait in ETF History?
This shutdown – now entering its fourth week – is on track to break records if Congress fails to pass a funding bill soon. The National Economic Council has signaled cautious optimism, but traders are skeptical. Prediction markets on Polymarket show only a 7% chance that the government will reopen before Halloween.
The deadlock has already surpassed most past closures, echoing the 35-day standoff during President Trump’s first term, which was previously the longest in U.S. history. The Senate is preparing for yet another vote to unlock government funding – its 11th attempt since early October.
Cardano’s Momentum Grows Despite Silence
Interestingly, the political freeze hasn’t entirely cooled market confidence. On Polymarket, users are still betting heavily on a Cardano ETF approval by 2025, assigning 77% odds to success.
Analysts say this reflects growing optimism about Cardano’s fundamentals – a robust ecosystem, rising developer activity, and a reputation for being one of the more compliant blockchain networks. If approved, such a fund would mark the first major altcoin ETF outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum to gain SEC recognition.
XRP, meanwhile, continues to attract institutional interest following Ripple’s acquisitions and stablecoin expansion, though uncertainty around federal oversight has kept progress muted.
Washington Politics vs. Wall Street Momentum
September’s regulatory overhaul had briefly ignited hope across the crypto industry. The SEC streamlined its ETF review timeline, cutting approval windows from 240 days to just 75, and simplifying the process for compliant digital assets. But the shutdown has put that optimism on ice.
For now, Wall Street giants and crypto investors alike are watching Washington’s gridlock play out like a slow-moving storm. Once the government reopens, a wave of delayed ETF verdicts – from Bitcoin to Cardano and XRP – could hit the market all at once, potentially reshaping digital asset investment in the U.S.