Instead of rehearsing the familiar four-year pattern that crypto watchers have obsessed over for a decade, Wood says the asset now behaves differently.
Rather than spectacular crashes wiping out most of its price — the hallmark of every previous cycle — the most recent downturn stopped far short of historical norms.
The way she frames it: Bitcoin used to collapse like a startup stock; today it corrects more like a macro asset.
What Changed? The Investor Base, She Says
Wood attributes the shift to who is holding Bitcoin.
Institutional players — wealth managers, corporates, hedge funds, sovereign allocators — are increasingly absorbing supply and managing exposure through more sophisticated risk frameworks.
That means fewer panic sellers, fewer cascading liquidations, and a sturdier demand floor. The dramatic wipeouts of prior cycles, she argues, become less likely as deep-pocketed investors scale participation.
Cycle Theory No Longer Explains Price Moves
For years, analysts mapped Bitcoin’s highs and lows against halving dates and electricity-cost narratives. Wood suggests those models are now outdated because they assume the same retail-driven feedback loop is still in charge.
In her view, the halving rhythm didn’t disappear — but it stopped being the dominant force that predicts how far prices can fall.
Her Bottom-Line View: The Low Is Probably In
Wood believes Bitcoin carved out its cycle low weeks ago, implying the next leg higher is being built from a more stable foundation than in previous years.
If she’s right, Bitcoin’s defining trait — violent cyclic extremes — may be slowly dissolving as the asset matures into something closer to a reserve instrument than a speculative experiment.