Crypto markets are once again being pulled into the center of global politics after Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with Europe. The US president has threatened 10% tariffs on imports from several European countries starting February 1, 2026, with the rate potentially rising to 25% by June if negotiations fail.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading near $95,000, while Ethereum is at around $3,300, both stuck in a slow, low-volatility range over the past few days. That calm may not last.
What Trump’s Tariff Threat Is Really About
The proposed tariffs target allies including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. The move is tied directly to Trump’s renewed push for the “complete and total purchase” of Greenland, which he views as strategically critical for U.S. security due to its Arctic position and natural resources.
European leaders have rejected the pressure outright, calling it blackmail. Denmark’s prime minister said Europe would not be coerced, while protests have already erupted in both Denmark and Greenland. Trump, meanwhile, has not ruled out using stronger measures if talks collapse.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump’s broader tariff framework, including measures imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Lower courts previously ruled that IEEPA does not explicitly authorize tariffs, meaning a loss could force the administration to pivot to a “Plan B” involving universal 10% tariffs.
BREAKING: President Trump announces a 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Netherlands, and Finland beginning February 1st.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 17, 2026
This tariff will be increased to 25% beginning on June 1st.
Tariffs will remain in effect until the US reaches a deal to buy… pic.twitter.com/978qAHjxao
Why Crypto Markets Care
Crypto has consistently treated Trump’s tariff announcements as macro shock events, not political noise. Risk assets tend to react fast, and digital assets often move harder than stocks.
History backs this up. In October 2025, Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on China triggered a massive liquidation event across crypto markets. Bitcoin dropped roughly 10%, Ether fell 14%, and high-beta assets like Solana sank close to 20%. Earlier, the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs sparked a sharp sell-off in equities that spilled into crypto, dragging Bitcoin toward $76,000.
On the flip side, even temporary tariff pauses have triggered relief rallies, showing just how sensitive crypto is to shifts in trade policy and risk sentiment.
What This Means for Bitcoin Right Now
Bitcoin’s current price action around $95,000 reflects hesitation, not strength. The market is waiting to see whether these tariff threats turn into policy.
If tariffs move forward on February 1, history suggests Bitcoin could face renewed downside pressure, especially if equities also react negatively. A move back toward the $88,000–$90,000 area would not be surprising in a risk-off scenario.
If the Supreme Court blocks the tariffs or negotiations cool tensions, Bitcoin could reclaim momentum quickly. In that case, a push back toward the $100,000–$103,000 zone becomes realistic, especially given how aggressively buyers have stepped in after similar scares in the past.
Ethereum’s Position Looks More Fragile
Ethereum, at around $3,300, tends to underperform Bitcoin during macro-driven sell-offs. In previous tariff shocks, ETH’s percentage losses exceeded BTC’s as leverage unwound faster.
If markets turn defensive, Ethereum could slip toward $2,900–$3,000, where prior demand zones sit. A relief rally, however, could send ETH back toward $3,600–$3,800, assuming Bitcoin stabilizes and risk appetite returns.
What ChatGPT Predicts From Here
We asked ChatGPT to model likely scenarios based on past tariff reactions, current price structure, and volatility patterns.
The short-term outlook is conditional, not absolute.
If tariffs are confirmed and risk assets sell off, ChatGPT projects Bitcoin trading in a $88,000–$92,000 range over the following weeks, with Ethereum lagging near $2,900–$3,100.
If legal challenges delay or block the tariffs, or if negotiations soften the rhetoric, Bitcoin could recover toward $100,000+, with Ethereum following into the mid-$3,600s.