ChatGPT States How Long All XRP Will Take to Burn In Various Scenarios

A recent analysis shared on X by XRP-focused YouTuber Moon Lambo provides a detailed breakdown of how long it would take to burn the entire supply of 100 billion XRP under different transaction and fee conditions. The figures, generated by ChatGPT, indicate that even under the most extreme scenarios, the complete depletion of XRP through transaction fees would span thousands to millions of years.

The analysis presents eight potential cases, each combining varying transaction per second (TPS) levels with per-transaction fees measured in "drops," where one XRP is equivalent to one million drops.

The current baseline scenario, estimated at 10 TPS with a 10-drop fee, suggests a burn rate of 8.64 XRP per day. At this rate, it would take approximately 31.7 million years to exhaust the XRP supply. Even a tenfold increase in transactions to 100 TPS would only reduce this timeframe to about 3.1 million years.

Scaling Transaction Volumes and Fees

The data explores scenarios involving higher transaction volumes. At 1,000 TPS with a 10-drop fee per transaction, XRP would burn at a rate of 864 XRP daily, requiring approximately 316,000 years to reach zero supply. Increasing the transaction rate to 10,000 TPS under the same fee structure would reduce the burn time to about 31,000 years.

The impact of increased transaction fees becomes more significant at higher volumes. For instance, a scenario with 10,000 TPS and a 100-drop fee per transaction results in 86,400 XRP being burned daily, leading to an estimated burn time of approximately 3,169 years for the entire XRP supply.

At the most extreme analyzed levels, 100,000 TPS with a 1,000-drop fee would see the XRP supply vanish in about 32 years. The most aggressive scenario, involving 1,000,000 TPS and a 1,000-drop fee, suggests a complete burn in just three years. However, such transaction volumes and fee structures are considered highly unrealistic given current network usage and economic conditions.

Community Perspectives on XRP Supply Dynamics

Following Moon Lambo's post, XRP community member Nomad_XRP highlighted the importance of distinguishing between token burning mechanisms and broader market supply and demand dynamics.

Nomad_XRP emphasized that while burning reduces the total circulating supply, market price is primarily determined by the equilibrium between supply and demand. Consequently, he advised investors against relying on the slow burn rate as a primary driver for XRP price appreciation.

Moon Lambo's analysis underscores that the natural XRP burn rate through transaction fees is currently negligible in its impact on the overall supply. Even with substantially increased transaction volumes and fees, the process of exhausting the total 100 billion XRP supply would extend over thousands or millions of years.

The calculations from ChatGPT suggest that XRP's deflationary mechanism, driven by transaction fees, is too gradual to lead to the exhaustion of the asset's total supply within any practical timeframe.