Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed reported an estimated 4.3% unemployment rate for September during a U.S. government shutdown affecting official data releases.
This estimate highlights potential disruptions in macroeconomic data reliance, impacting broader financial markets and cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, amid absent official job statistics.
The Chicago Federal Reserve, under President Austan Goolsbee, issued a real-time forecast for September 2025's unemployment rate. The estimate of 4.3%–4.34% comes amidst a U.S. government shutdown and the absence of official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Austan Goolsbee emphasized the necessity of relying on alternative data, citing the suspension of government reporting. The Federal Reserve forecast utilized a composite of 11 indicators to estimate unemployment unchanged from August levels.
The immediate impact is notable on market participants who depend on timely data for decision‑making. Risk assets like BTC and ETH, sensitive to economic news, saw no direct linkage to the forecasted unemployment figures during this period.
While broader macroeconomic indicators influence markets, no regulatory authorities such as the SEC or CFTC have commented on the Chicago Fed's estimates. Updated regulations or policy shifts remain uninfluenced currently.
Historically, similar scenarios, during government shutdowns, have led to market volatility. Historical patterns imply potential asset movement, yet this event lacked direct cryptocurrency implications from main exchanges or protocol developers.
Data review shows no immediate correlation between the Chicago Fed's estimation and crypto price movements. The absence of real‑time blockchain analytics specific to this forecast underscores the current data gap in traditional and decentralized markets.
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said: “We are relying on a composite of 11 job market indicators in the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting.” Radio USA