André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe has indicated that Bitcoin’s max-pain zone might be approaching, with potential levels identified around eighty-four thousand dollars, aligning with the average cost basis of BlackRock’s IBIT. He also suggested a possible zone around seventy-three thousand dollars, which corresponds to the cost basis for MicroStrategy’s holdings.
These price points are significant as they represent levels where major institutional investors have accumulated Bitcoin. Reaching these thresholds could precipitate a market "clear-out," potentially signaling the final bottom of the current cycle.
Understanding the Max-Pain Zone
The concept of a max-pain zone originates from the idea that market stress tends to peak at specific price levels. In the context of Bitcoin, this zone reflects the areas where influential investors have made their most substantial investments. Consequently, any significant price movement towards these points could trigger substantial selling or buying pressure.
If the price approaches $84,000 or $73,000, investors who acquired Bitcoin at these levels might feel compelled to sell to either break even or mitigate losses. This process can effectively remove less committed market participants, thereby establishing a more robust foundation for a subsequent bullish phase.
FWIW —
Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k.
Very likely we’ll see a final bottom somewhere in between.
But these will be fire sale prices and akin to a full cycle reset imo.
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 19, 2025
A pertinent real-world example is MicroStrategy, a company known for its substantial Bitcoin holdings. The company’s average purchase price, estimated to be around $73,000, acts as a psychological benchmark for the market. When Bitcoin's price nears this level, both institutional and retail traders closely observe for signs of capitulation or renewed accumulation.
Historical data indicates that previous Bitcoin bottoms have frequently occurred in proximity to the cost bases of significant institutional investors, underscoring the importance of these max-pain zones in market analysis.
All eyes on MicroStrategy:
MicroStrategy, $MSTR, is now down -40% over the last month and -68% from its a record high.
They now hold 649,870 Bitcoin at an average price of $74,433.
In other words, if Bitcoin falls another 15%, MicroStrategy’s position will turn red.
Can… https://t.co/Oa2gieaEVypic.twitter.com/u8uW7XeYIe
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 20, 2025
Trends and Market Implications
Recent market activity highlights a growing focus on institutional Bitcoin holdings. The performance and cost basis of products like BlackRock's IBIT, which averages approximately $84,000, demonstrate the influence that large-scale investment vehicles exert on overall market sentiment.
Institutional investors now hold 40% of $BTC–#ETF‘s
And this is still a conservative estimate, because only companies with over $100 million in assets under management have to report these holdings at all. pic.twitter.com/8j3zdRZ2Fg
— Phoenix Crypto 𓅓 (@PhoenixCrypt01) November 21, 2025
Analysis of the past three Bitcoin market cycles suggests that when prices approach significant institutional entry points, a notable increase in volatility and liquidity events often occurs.
For investors, understanding these max-pain zones can offer valuable insights into potential risk and reward scenarios. It also underscores the principle that market bottoms are frequently shaped by a combination of psychological factors, investor positioning, and technical market dynamics.