Crypto 4-Year Cycle: Is It Time to Sell?

Understanding the Crypto 4-Year Cycle

The 4-year cycle theory in crypto is based on Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce block rewards roughly every four years. Historically, these halvings have triggered bullish runs that peak about 12–18 months after the event, followed by significant corrections.

If this cycle pattern repeats, and considering the last halving was in April 2024, the current period—late 2025—could align with a potential market top.

Many traders and analysts believe that those who truly follow the cycle logic should be preparing to take profits now, before a possible bear market sets in.

Why Some Believe Now Is the Time to Sell

Looking at past cycles:

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  2013: Price peaked about a year post-halving.
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  2017: Similar trend, with the bull run peaking in December.
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  2021: BTC hit all-time highs in Q4, about 18 months after halving.

By that logic, Q4 2025 could be the end of the current bull market. Investors who believe in this model may feel this is the last chance to exit at the top before a multi-year downturn.

That said, the crypto market has evolved. Institutional participation, macroeconomic influences, and ETF flows might disrupt past patterns.

Should You Really Sell Everything?

Timing the top is incredibly difficult. Even if cycles provide clues, no one can predict the exact moment the market flips. Selling everything now assumes the market will crash soon—which may or may not happen.

A more balanced approach could be partial profit-taking, adjusting portfolios, or moving funds to stablecoins or less volatile assets. Sticking strictly to the 4-year cycle may help long-term planning, but it shouldn’t replace sound risk management and individual goals.