Every crypto veteran knows about the famous 4-year Bitcoin cycle. It’s the pattern that seems to repeat after every halving when mining rewards are cut in half, slowing down how much new Bitcoin enters the market. This simple shift in supply has fueled huge bull runs in the past.
It happened after the 2012 halving, again in 2016, then in 2020, and once more in 2024. Each time, Bitcoin price surged to new highs before eventually cooling off into a bear market. For many, this pattern feels like clockwork, predictable, even reliable.
According to PlanB on X, the analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, that belief might be misleading.
Why Bears Think the Top Is In
A growing number of bearish voices believe the Bitcoin token already peaked around $126k and that a major bear market could start soon. Their argument? The cycle says so.
They point to history, claiming the top usually happens around 18 months after a halving, followed by a deep pullback. By that logic, Bitcoin has already hit its high point for this run but PlanB disagrees.
He argues that using only three or four past cycles isn’t enough to predict the future. Bitcoin has evolved. The market has matured, institutions have entered, and the rules may be changing. The same formula that worked before may no longer apply to this era.
Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… pic.twitter.com/tehnZ4rRab
PlanB’s Take on the Current Bitcoin Phase
PlanB explains that his S2F model never claimed to predict exact tops or bottoms. It simply tracks the average BTC price expected during each halving cycle, based on scarcity and supply reduction.
PlanB also points out that Bitcoin hasn’t shown signs of a full-blown peak yet. The realized price—a metric that reflects the average price investors paid for their BTC—hasn’t moved far above the long-term 200-week moving average.
Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key indicator of market momentum, hasn’t reached the extreme 80+ levels seen in previous euphoric tops. Those moments, where prices go vertical and excitement hits its peak, haven’t happened yet in this cycle.
So if the typical signs of a market top are missing, could the real rally still be ahead?
Institutional Power Could Change Everything
One major shift in this cycle is who’s buying. Earlier bull runs were fueled by retail investors chasing quick gains. Now, the scene looks different. Institutions—hedge funds, asset managers, and even pension funds—are allocating small but steady portions of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
PlanB suggests this new investor base might create a slower, steadier rise rather than the dramatic spikes of the past. If large funds rebalance positions regularly—selling when the BTC price rises too fast and buying when it drops—Bitcoin could enter a more stable growth phase.
This doesn’t mean explosive gains are gone forever. It might just mean the Bitcoin token is moving into a mature market cycle, where deep bear markets are less likely, and long-term growth is more sustainable.
Bitcoin has always been a mix of math, emotion, and market psychology. The halving cycles tell part of the story, but not all of it. As PlanB notes, a major “phase transition” where Bitcoin truly breaks into a new level of adoption and valuation hasn’t happened yet in this era.
Maybe that transition is coming next year. Maybe it unfolds in 2027 or 2028. What’s clear is that Bitcoin isn’t behaving exactly like it did before, and that alone should make everyone rethink the usual 4-year cycle expectations.