Crypto market lows are unlikely to form at moments when many analysts and traders are calling for one, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
"Be cautious when you see a widespread consensus forming about a specific price bottom," Santiment said in a report on Saturday. They added that "true bottoms often form when the majority expects prices to fall further."
Santiment noted that this sentiment has recently emerged as a trending topic on social media after Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $95,000 on Friday amid a wider technology stock decline. "This suggests many traders believe the worst is over," Santiment said, arguing that historically such sentiment is often followed by further downside.
Crypto market participants frequently make calls that the market has bottomed when psychological price levels are breached, such as Bitcoin falling below $100,000.
Bitcoin Sentiment Slumps, Positive Comments Fall to One-Month Low
Despite the bottom-calling, prominent figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee have recently reiterated their forecasts that Bitcoin could still rally to $200,000 or higher by the end of the year.
Santiment also pointed out that the ratio of positive to negative comments about Bitcoin is at its lowest point in over a month.
"As Bitcoin's price fell, its social dominance soared to over 40%, showing it is the main topic of a very fearful conversation," Santiment said.
The sentiment platform added that many traders pinned the recent Bitcoin price drop on Strategy chairman Michael Saylor selling off Bitcoin, with social media mentions of “Saylor” surging sharply as Bitcoin fell.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows May Be Bullish
During an interview with CNBC on Friday, Saylor denied reports that the company was offloading some of its Bitcoin amid a flash crash in the asset’s price.
Meanwhile, Santiment said that the significant spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in recent times may be a positive sign for Bitcoin’s spot price.
"Large ETF inflows have often marked local price tops, while significant outflows have coincided with market bottoms, suggesting retail panic," Santiment said.
Over the past three trading days, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.17 billion in outflows, according to Farside.
On Thursday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $866 million in net outflows, marking their second-worst day on record after the $1.14 billion daily outflows on Feb. 25.