Gemini's Application to CFTC

Gemini, the U.S. crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, is preparing to offer prediction-market contracts, according to people close to the company’s plans.

The exchange has submitted an application to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) seeking approval to operate derivatives contracts tied to real-world events, including sports, elections, and other outcomes.

Growing Trend of Prediction Markets

With this move, Gemini joins a growing group of exchanges exploring prediction markets as traders look for alternative products in a volatile crypto market. The sector has gained momentum recently, as on-chain prediction protocols and centralized platforms both compete for users drawn to event-based trading and speculative markets.

Prediction markets have been gaining traction among both traders and retail participants, and interest from venture capital continues to rise — with leading platforms valued above $10 billion. The space is led by Polymarket and Kalshi, which have emerged as key players competing for market share.

Market Activity and Competitors

Activity on these platforms has accelerated sharply. Polymarket saw a record 477,850 monthly active traders in October, along with a rebound in monthly volume to $3.02 billion, according to data from The Block. Kalshi, meanwhile, still outpaced Polymarket in terms of total trading volume last month, hitting $4.4 billion.

Crypto exchanges are also moving quickly into the space. Crypto.com recently teamed up with Hollywood.com to launch entertainment-focused prediction contracts, giving users a way to trade on major cultural and media events. MetaMask is joining the trend as well, confirming plans last month to integrate Polymarket’s markets later this year.