Galaxy Research has revised its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target from $185,000 to $120,000. This adjustment is attributed to factors including structural maturity in the market, whale distribution patterns, and competing macroeconomic narratives that have collectively weakened bullish momentum. The revised outlook follows a period where Bitcoin traded below $100,000 for the first time since June, signaling a notable reversal after sustained strength.
In its latest report, titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, characterized the revision as a recalibration rather than a fundamental shift in long-term conviction. The report states, “Bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, but cyclical dynamics have evolved.”
Market Dynamics Influencing Bitcoin's Trajectory
The report details several headwinds that have influenced Bitcoin's price movements throughout 2025. Significant transfers of Bitcoin from early holders to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional portfolios, while indicative of market maturity, have also introduced short-term supply pressures.
A substantial leverage wipeout event on October 10 is identified as a critical factor that drained liquidity and impacted market confidence. Concurrently, the emergence of competing macroeconomic themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, the performance of gold, and the growth of stablecoins, have diverted capital that might otherwise have been invested in Bitcoin.
Retail Sentiment and Strategic Investment Considerations
Galaxy’s analysts also highlighted persistent retail apathy as a contributing factor, noting that the high level of enthusiasm seen post-2021 has not fully returned. When retail interest did resurface, it was largely driven by speculation in meme coins rather than sustained accumulation.
Regarding institutional investment, the report observes a lack of significant Bitcoin purchases by government entities, despite public discussions surrounding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) proposal. The report notes, “The U.S. government has been very quiet on the SBR front,” suggesting this has been a missed opportunity for fostering broader adoption.
Navigating the Post-$100K Era
Even with the downward revision of its price target, Galaxy maintains that Bitcoin’s ascent above the $100,000 mark earlier this year signifies the commencement of a new “maturity era.” This phase is expected to be characterized by reduced volatility, continued ETF-driven inflows, and ongoing institutional absorption of the cryptocurrency.
The report concludes by suggesting that the next phase for companies involved with Bitcoin will likely shift focus towards revenue generation and diversification beyond mere accumulation. The path to future price appreciation is anticipated to be more gradual but potentially more sustainable.