Key Insights: The Evolving Crypto Market Cycle
The classic four-year crypto market cycle may be losing its grip, according to recent research by market maker Wintermute. As such, a crypto market breakout in 2026 may hinge on different signals such as geopolitics, institutional flows, and capital rotation. Meanwhile, NYDIG linked crypto market movements to political meddling, which results in hotter inflation, a loss of trust in the central bank, and a weaker currency.
A recent crypto news research by Wintermute suggested that the classic four-year crypto market cycle may be losing its grip. For years, Bitcoin’s halving has acted like the market’s main timer. Crypto market prices tended to follow a familiar setup, with boom-and-bust waves repeating roughly every four years. However, Wintermute pointed to a major shift in who now controls the flow of money. This time, institutional products such as spot ETFs are playing a bigger role. These vehicles can pull fresh capital in, or drain it out, without following the same halving-led script.
Top Signals For 2026 Crypto Market Breakout
According to recent crypto news, Bitcoin’s 7% gain so far this year has lifted the rest of the crypto market too. Money flowed back into the big coins, and the whole market picked up speed. At the same time, Bitcoin price has moved closer to a major level that traders have been watching closely. This is the same level that has repeatedly stalled breakouts since November, making it the next major test for bulls.
Research from market maker Wintermute and NYDIG Research said the rally so far has not been a simple risk-on trade. Instead, they linked the move to rising geopolitical tensions and a bigger change in how money now moves through crypto. From their perspective, that shift in capital flows is not just a backdrop. It is also one of three key forces that could lift prices above today’s range. As we break down the key catalysts, it helps to explain why crypto has come alive this year after last year’s flat, forgettable trading.
Political Turmoil & Its Impact on Crypto Market Prices
Greg Cipolaro at NYDIG said the main short-term trigger has been the political mess in the United States. He said that uncertainty has pushed some investors to look for other places to park their money, and crypto has picked up some of that demand. He also flagged the growing clash between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve. In particular, Cipolaro pointed to Trump’s attacks on Chair Jerome Powell after the Fed resisted calls to cut interest rates on demand. He said history links political meddling to hotter inflation, a loss of trust in the central bank, and a weaker currency.
Bitcoin may be catching a bid for a simple reason. It sits outside any single government, and its supply does not change. As investors worry about the kind of policy mistakes that can weaken currencies, some appear to be leaning into assets that cannot be printed. Cipolaro also said the wider macro backdrop has helped put a floor under prices. He pointed to global money supply hitting record highs, which has usually been friendly for hard assets.
Cipolaro said his team’s work showed gold and Bitcoin usually move for different reasons. In fact, he noted they have almost no meaningful correlation. Still, he argued they share one important idea: truly non-sovereign stores of value are rare in a world dominated by government-issued money. On that view, Bitcoin may simply be playing catch-up after lagging behind metals.
He also pointed to another tailwind. Some of the market’s selling pressure has faded. Tax-loss selling often peaks into year-end as investors dump losers to offset gains elsewhere, and that flow typically dries up once the calendar flips.
Crypto Market Institutional Flows, ETFs, and Digital Asset Trusts
Wintermute said the market is dealing with a big structural shift. It pointed to the rise of institutional products such as spot ETFs and digital asset trusts. In Wintermute’s view, these vehicles have turned into walled gardens. They can create steady demand for large-cap coins, but they do not naturally push money down the risk curve into smaller tokens. As a result, the wider market does not get the usual ripple effect.
At the same time, Wintermute said some older selling pressure has faded. It also highlighted the aftermath of the Oct. 10 liquidations. BitMEX Research said those events left some exchanges with long exposure after auto-deleveraging wiped out traders. As exchanges worked through those positions, the extra selling kept prices heavy for a while.
Then there is the bigger question hanging over everything: is Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle still real? A halving cuts the block reward in half roughly every four years, and it has often lined up with boom-and-bust moves. For a long time, traders treated that pattern as a roadmap. Bitcoin would surge after the halving, the rest of the market would follow, and speculation would peak in an altseason before the cycle rolled into a bear market.
Wintermute argued that the playbook may no longer work. The firm said the four-year cycle looks dead, and it described 2025 as a year that failed to produce the rally many expected. In its view, that may be the moment crypto started shifting from pure speculation into a more mature asset class. That change also shows up in how profits move around the market. In earlier cycles, Bitcoin gains often flowed into Ether, then into large-cap altcoins, and finally into smaller, riskier tokens. Wintermute said that the chain reaction is now breaking. Based on its OTC flow data, the classic rotation into altseason looks weaker and less reliable than before.
Mindshare Returns and Future Rotation
Wintermute said retail money mostly chased stocks in 2025, not crypto. It described the year as one of extreme concentration, with attention locked on hot themes like AI, rare earths, and quantum computing. Because of that, Wintermute believes the crypto market story in 2026 is less about hype and more about where capital is rotating next. In its view, that rotation is a key reason prices could keep climbing this year, alongside several other major tailwinds.
The market maker also argued that institutional demand needs to widen for the next leg to be bigger. ETFs and corporate treasury buyers, it said, cannot stay focused on a tiny set of assets forever if the market wants a broader breakout. It pointed to early signs of that shift, including spot SOL and XRP ETF products trading, plus a growing list of altcoin ETF filings moving through the review process.
Finally, Wintermute highlighted the return of the wealth effect. If the crypto market, including Bitcoin or Ethereum, posts a strong run, it can leave investors sitting on fresh profits. Historically, some of that money then spills into the wider altcoin market, giving smaller tokens their chance to move.