Instead of reinforcing consensus trades, his comments point to a market that may be entering a very different phase than past bull runs.
Key Takeaways
- •Ran Neuner favors PENGU over XRP as a higher-upside altcoin for 2026.
- •He sees commodity trends as a key signal for Bitcoin’s next move.
- •Bitcoin gains may be smaller than in past cycles, but still meaningful.
- •Neuner expects 2026 to be a stronger year for crypto markets.
Asked to make a quick comparison between two widely discussed assets during an appearance on Paul Barron Network, Ran Neuner opted for PENGU rather than XRP as his preferred altcoin going into 2026. The remark was brief and unelaborated, but it stood out precisely because it ran counter to expectations.
Rather than framing the choice as a judgment on XRP’s fundamentals, the decision appears to reflect Neuner’s broader belief that future outperformance is more likely to come from less crowded corners of the market.
Why Metals Matter More Than Memes
Neuner’s broader outlook centers less on individual tokens and more on macro signals. He highlighted a recurring sequence he has observed across previous market cycles, where movements in traditional commodities tend to precede major crypto advances.
In earlier cycles, precious metals led the way, followed by strength in industrial metals. Only after that rotation did Bitcoin accelerate meaningfully. Today, he sees familiar conditions forming again, with gold elevated, silver losing momentum, and copper beginning to firm – a setup he believes could act as a tailwind for Bitcoin.
Big Asset, Smaller Multiples
While constructive on Bitcoin, Neuner was careful to temper expectations. He suggested that the days of exponential gains are likely behind the market, simply due to Bitcoin’s size and maturity. Even so, he argued that more modest gains by historical standards could still translate into substantial value creation, especially when compared with traditional assets.
From his perspective, Bitcoin no longer needs explosive upside to justify its role in a diversified portfolio.
Rethinking How Cycles Actually Work
One of Neuner’s more provocative views is his skepticism toward the idea that crypto moves in a strict four-year rhythm tied to halvings. He suggested that liquidity conditions across global markets may be the real driver, with past alignment to halvings potentially overstated.
As liquidity has expanded across equities and commodities, Neuner sees a supportive backdrop for crypto that does not depend on a predefined calendar.
Setting the Stage for 2026
Despite the volatility seen toward the end of 2025, Neuner pointed out that Bitcoin’s longer-term performance remains intact. Looking ahead, he sees 2026 as a potential reset year – one where Bitcoin regains leadership and select altcoins outperform, particularly those outside the most established names.
His preference for PENGU over XRP may be less about the two tokens themselves and more about a broader message: the next phase of the market could reward unconventional positioning rather than consensus bets.