- •TOTAL crypto index nears a rare bearish LMACD crossover, hinting at an 88% or 76% drawdown.
- •Bulls must act by month-end to avoid a potential market correction.
- •Historical patterns suggest caution amid current market uncertainty.
The cryptocurrency market is teetering on a critical juncture, as highlighted by Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, in a recent X post analyzing the TOTAL crypto index. The monthly Long-Term Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD) is nearing a bearish crossover, a rare event with historical implications.
The TOTAL index—representing the combined market cap of the top 125 cryptocurrencies—shows two prior bearish crosses. These led to significant drawdowns: an 88% drop and a 76% decline, respectively. With the current market cap standing at $3.24 trillion, a similar downturn could spell trouble for investors.
Bulls Urged to Defend Market by Month-End
The chart reveals a -6.9% dip in the recent period, with historical corrections marked at -88% and -83%, underscoring the potential severity. The LMACD’s lower panel indicates a narrowing gap between the MACD line and the signal line, with the histogram trending toward zero—a precursor to a bearish shift.
TOTAL crypto index
— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) October 15, 2025
On the cusp of a bearish crossover on the monthly LMACD
Only two ever bear crosses before – one led to an 88% drawdown; the other a 76% drawdown
Bulls need to show strength before the end of the month to diverge upward instead of converging into a crossover pic.twitter.com/tZOlYVOXTJ
Severino warns that bulls must muster strength before month-end to avert this crossover and push prices upward. The crypto community’s reactions on X range from skepticism about market resilience to concerns over altcoin weakness, reflecting a broader unease.
Strategic Moves for Cautious Investors
This scenario aligns with past cycles where over-leveraging and market exuberance preceded sharp corrections. Investors are advised to monitor key support levels and consider reducing exposure if the crossover materializes. While the market has shown resilience, the looming bearish signal suggests caution. The next few weeks will be pivotal, determining whether crypto can defy historical patterns or brace for a significant pullback.