Significant Developments in Cryptocurrencies
With the Federal Reserve week behind us and last week’s inflation through PCE behind us, this week kicks off with the announcement of employment figures critical for continued interest rate cuts. While inflation remains contained, evident contraction in employment is essential for rate reductions to proceed.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether employment contraction will indeed continue. What are the consensus expectations? What should market participants be prepared for?
Monday, September 29
Key events include a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu at 18:00, followed by statements from Fed’s Williams and Musalem at 20:30.
Tuesday, September 30
Fed’s Bostic makes an appearance at 01:00, followed by Jefferson and Logan at 13:00. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, expected at 96 (previously 97.4), and JOLTS figures (expected at 7.17M, previously 7.181M) are due at 17:00. Fed’s Goolsbee follows at 20:30.
Wednesday, October 1
A potential U.S. government shutdown looms at 07:00, with the ADP Employment Change expected at 50K (previously 54K) at 15:15. S&P Manufacturing PMI Final, expected and previously at 52, follows at 16:45. Other highlights include Token2049 Singapore, a 1inch announcement, and a Senate Crypto Taxation Session from 17:00‑18:00.
Thursday, October 2
The Eurozone Unemployment Rate holds steady at 6.2%, both expected and previous, at 12:00. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, expected at 225K versus previous 218K, come in at 15:30, with U.S. Factory Orders Month‑on‑Month following at 17:00. Fed’s Logan then speaks at 17:30, and the SuiFest follows later in the day.
Friday, October 3
Turkey’s Monthly Consumer Price Index is anticipated to rise by 2.55% (previously 2.04%) at 10:00. Crucial data comes out at 15:30, with U.S. Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.3%, Non‑Farm Payrolls expected at 50K (previously 22K), and Average Earnings maintaining 3.7%.
Key Points to Consider
Employment data will help clarify why many Fed members express concerns. They argue against continuing rate cuts, citing rising inflation and a recovering job market. The upcoming data will determine if these concerns hold merit.
Consensus expectations for the data hint at a recovery from the previous month, with no annual rise in the unemployment rate projected. If employment weakness does not persist amid rising inflation, it could negatively impact cryptocurrencies, causing market downturns in the coming days and hours.