Key Technical Indicators Signal Potential Market Shift
Bullish divergence on Bitcoin (BTC) and Arbitrum (ARB) charts has been building since early 2025. This pattern, where price makes lower lows while momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) make higher lows, suggests seller exhaustion and a potential shift in market sentiment. The analysis, highlighted by trader Michaël van de Poppe, emerges during a period of market consolidation for Bitcoin, which has been trading around $95,000 after a year of significant price movements.
Bitcoin: ETF Flows, Macro Tailwinds, and a Path Above $100K
The concept of bullish divergence is critical for understanding potential market reversals. It occurs when an asset's price is charting lower lows, but its momentum oscillator, such as the RSI, is forming higher lows. This discrepancy points to weakening selling pressure and an underlying increase in buyer interest. Van de Poppe's analysis, using TradingView charts, illustrates this phenomenon for Bitcoin. While BTC's price has seen declines from its mid-2025 peaks, the RSI has shown a consistent upward trend since January, forming an ascending trough within a support zone defined by key moving averages. This divergence suggests that despite price drops, underlying buying momentum is growing.
A massive bullish divergence indicating that the markets are currently accumulating. $ARB is another example.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 30, 2025
It's currently sitting at a bullish divergence which have been created since the beginning of '25.
Once this one turns, that's going to bring a massive upwards move… pic.twitter.com/UCY7uydmOd
For Bitcoin, this technical signal is complemented by favorable macroeconomic conditions. Continued institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have already surpassed $30 billion in 2025, and increasing regulatory clarity from the U.S. SEC are contributing to investor confidence. These factors create a supportive environment for Bitcoin to potentially break through the $100,000 mark. As Michaël van de Poppe stated, "Once this one turns, that’s going to bring a massive upwards move on the markets." Historical data also supports this outlook; a similar divergence observed in 2023 preceded a substantial 150% price surge for Bitcoin, indicating the pattern's predictive power in bull markets.
Arbitrum: L2 Growth, DeFi Demand, and Potential Run Toward New Highs
Arbitrum, a prominent Layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum, also exhibits this bullish divergence, adding to the overall market optimism. The Arbitrum ecosystem is demonstrating robust growth, evidenced by a Total Value Locked (TVL) exceeding $15 billion. Furthermore, the development of innovative decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, such as those focused on perpetuals trading like GMX, highlights the network's utility and increasing adoption. The divergence in ARB's price since early 2025 suggests that sophisticated investors are positioning themselves for potential gains, especially in anticipation of the synergies expected from Ethereum's Dencun upgrade. This could potentially drive ARB's price towards $5, particularly as the DeFi sector experiences a revival. With the growing interest in cross-chain bridges and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), ARB is well-positioned to potentially outperform Bitcoin in percentage gains, offering investors a way to gain leveraged exposure to altcoin market rotations.
Positioning Strategies for the 2025–2026 Crypto Supercycle
Despite the bullish indicators, a degree of caution is warranted. The current trading range has shown relatively low trading volume, underscoring the need for confirmation. A decisive price close above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) would serve as a significant confirmation signal. External factors, such as geopolitical developments and decisions from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, could potentially prolong the current market consolidation phase. However, on-chain metrics, including an increase in active addresses and accumulation by large holders (whales), present a resilient picture of the market's underlying strength. This observed divergence is more than a fleeting technical anomaly; it is a strong indicator of the potential for a significant upward movement in the anticipated 2025-2026 crypto supercycle. For traders, this suggests a strategic approach to positioning, potentially combining spot holdings with options strategies to capitalize on asymmetric upside opportunities. As the cryptocurrency market continues to mature, these technical patterns serve as valuable reminders that patience and astute observation are often rewarded.