Following a period where data flow came to a halt due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. government, the spotlight in the cryptocurrency market turns to the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to be announced today at 15:30 Turkish local time. Experts suggest that the inflation data could notably affect Ethereum’s volatility, although general market volatility is expected to remain at usual levels.
Inflation Surpassing Expectations Could Jolt Markets
According to a survey conducted by FactSet with economists, consumer prices in September rose by 3.1% year-over-year, marking an 18-month high. The monthly increase is anticipated to be 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, is projected to remain steady at 3.1% for the third consecutive month.
Analysts believe that the inflation data will not hinder the Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut next week. Still, inflation figures coming in higher than expected could bolster the dollar index, causing an upward movement. Analysts from ING remarked, “A 50 basis point rate cut by year-end has been priced in. Data exceeding expectations would provide strong support to the dollar.”
Zerocap Research Head John Toro, on the other hand, highlights the opposite scenario, noting, “The U.S. government shutdown has left analysts without critical economic signals. A lower-than-expected inflation data may reignite risk appetite, especially given the pressure on retail sales during this period.”
Volatility Set to Rise for Ethereum and XRP
According to option market data from Deribit, Ethereum is expected to exhibit a 2.9% price volatility following the inflation data release. For Bitcoin, this figure is at 1.4%. Speaking to CoinDesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said, “Markets are pricing a +/- 1.4% movement in Bitcoin and +/- 2.9% in Ethereum.”
Volmex Finance’s volatility indices present a similar picture. XRP’s one-day implied volatility stands at 91%, while Solana’s is at 76%. These figures imply a potential movement of about 4.7% for XRP and around 4% for Solana within 24 hours.
Thielen noted that technical indicators are hinting at a short-term recovery, stating, “Although Bitcoin’s daily stochastic indicator has not fully reached the lower band of 15, it shows an upward divergence. This indicates that selling pressure may weaken and a brief price recovery could begin.”