CryptoQuant has observed a significant shift in Strategy's approach, moving from aggressive Bitcoin acquisition to a more conservative, liquidity-focused treasury strategy. This transition coincides with Bitcoin experiencing its largest drawdown of 2025.
According to a Wednesday report from CryptoQuant, Strategy's Bitcoin buying activity has seen a dramatic monthly reduction since late 2024. The analytics firm noted a substantial decrease in the company's monthly Bitcoin purchases, which fell from a peak of 134,000 BTC in late 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025. The purchases have further dwindled to a mere 135 BTC so far this month. CryptoQuant interprets this 24-month buffer as a clear indication that Strategy is preparing for a potential bear market.
Despite the overall trend, Strategy made a notable purchase on November 17th, acquiring 8,178 BTC for approximately $835.5 million. This was its largest purchase since July, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 649,870 BTC, valued at approximately $58.7 billion at the time of writing.
The firm has been the subject of intense speculation in recent months, influenced by a downturn in the crypto market and the unwinding of the BTC proxy trade, which involved digital asset treasury companies and mining operations.
Strategy Secures $1.4B Cash Reserve
Just a few weeks prior, Strategy CEO Phong Le indicated that the company might consider selling some of its Bitcoin to cover debt costs. This action would be contingent on its stock falling below net asset value (NAV) or if it experienced a loss of access to financing.
To manage its financial obligations, the company has established a $1.4 billion cash reserve. This reserve is intended to cover dividend payments and debt obligations, providing an estimated 12-month operational runway. The company has also outlined plans to expand this reserve to cover a 24-month period.
Strategy's efforts to be included in major stock market indexes have encountered challenges. MSCI, an organization that sets eligibility criteria for many of these indexes, has proposed a policy change that would prevent treasury companies from being included if they hold 50% or more of their balance-sheet assets in digital assets. Such a directive would significantly impact firms like Strategy by cutting off the passive inflows associated with index inclusion.
Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has stated that the company is actively engaging with MSCI regarding the proposed policy change, which is scheduled to take effect in January.
Bitcoin Bounces to Align with Industry Cost Benchmarks
Bitcoin's price movements are closely monitored against industry cost benchmarks, particularly through the Difficulty Regression Model, according to checkonchain. This model estimates the all-in sustaining production cost for the Bitcoin network, utilizing mining difficulty as a key indicator that incorporates all major operational variables into a single figure.
The Difficulty Regression Model provides an industry-wide estimate of the average cost to produce one Bitcoin, eliminating the need for detailed assumptions about hardware, energy expenses, or logistics.
Currently, this model is priced at approximately $92,300, which is roughly aligned with Bitcoin's spot price. Bitcoin experienced a brief dip to around $80,000 but has since recovered to the model's valuation.
Historically, when Bitcoin's price moves above the model, it tends to signal a bull market, whereas a price move beneath it often indicates a bear market. In April 2025, Bitcoin dropped to $76,000 but found support at the model's value. For the majority of 2025, Bitcoin traded approximately 50% above the model; however, in 2024, prices remained closer to it. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was quoted as much as 50% below the model. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin's price soared far above the model, doubling its price at the 2021 peak and reaching five times the model's value in 2017. As Bitcoin matures as an asset class, premiums at those historical levels appear to be a thing of the past.
In summary, the Difficulty Regression Model suggests that Bitcoin is currently priced near its production cost, which can be interpreted as a fair value zone. Valuations based on Metcalfe's Law also place Bitcoin near fair value around $90,000, further reinforcing this assessment.