CZ announces new BNB Chain prediction market, predict.fun

Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, has announced the launch of a new prediction market named predict.fun on the BNB Chain. This platform offers users an opportunity to earn yield on their idle funds while participating in betting.

Unlike platforms that utilize idle capital models, such as Polymarket, Predict.fun integrates DeFi to provide yield on users' staked funds. Currently, the platform features two markets with a combined volume of approximately $300,000. Predict.fun reports having over 12,000 users and has facilitated nearly 300,000 bets.

Predict.fun Operates on a Traditional Order Book Model

Predict.fun is supported by CZ's YZi Labs incubator and was founded by a former Binance researcher. The platform aims to establish BNB Chain as a hub for predictions by focusing on crypto, sports, and general events.

Instead of making straightforward bets, users engage by buying and selling shares related to event outcomes. The prices of these shares fluctuate based on collective expectations.

Successful predictions allow users to redeem their shares for a fixed payout, while unsuccessful ones expire without value. The platform employs a traditional order book model, enabling users to execute instant trades or set limit orders at desired prices.

A key feature of Predict.fun is its mobile-first design. Prior to its public launch, a "Skip the Queue" campaign generated early interest by emphasizing a streamlined smartphone interface. YZi Labs views Predict.fun as aligned with its mission to foster tools that provide practical, everyday utility on the BNB Chain.

The announcement, bolstered by CZ's endorsement, garnered over 590,000 views and generated significant community discussion regarding yield mechanics and potential ecosystem growth. However, despite BNB Chain's large user base, Predict.fun may face obstacles related to limited stablecoin issuance and liquidity, which could impact its expansion.

This launch follows CZ's Trust Wallet's introduction of a new feature called "Predictions." This feature enables users to trade on real-world events directly within the wallet while retaining full control of their funds. Initially supporting Myriad, it is set to integrate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, offering users access to prediction markets across various categories including crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, and global events.

As previously reported, the global prediction market is projected to reach over 220 million users, with an in-wallet interface for trading tokenized outcomes.

Regulatory Scrutiny of Prediction Markets in the US

Authorities in ten US states, along with several tribal groups, have initiated or threatened legal action concerning prediction markets. These include regulatory bodies in Ohio, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Massachusetts, and New York.

Most recently, the state of Connecticut issued a legal challenge against sports event contracts, sending cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood, Kalshi, and Crypto.com. The state's Department of Consumer Protection accused these companies of operating unlicensed online gambling, specifically sports wagering.

Kalshi and Crypto.com are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract markets (DCMs). Kalshi has contended in its legal proceedings in New York that the state lacks the authority to intervene in this federal oversight.

Peter Schiff and CZ Debate at Binance Blockchain Week

CZ and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff are scheduled to participate in a debate at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai. CZ, while promoting the new prediction market feature on his self-custodial wallet firm, Trust Wallet, expressed optimism for a forthcoming crypto market upturn. He stated, "I predict: many more ATHs coming soon. I just don’t know exactly when."

The debate is set to feature the two prominent figures discussing the comparative value and differences between Bitcoin and tokenized gold.

CZ has consistently made bullish forecasts for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. In October, the former Binance CEO predicted that Bitcoin would eventually surpass gold in value, stating, "I don’t know exactly when. Might take some time, but it will happen. Save the tweet."