Key Insights
- •Democrats won both gubernatorial races on November 4, 2025, with Mikie Sherrill holding New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger flipping Virginia from Republican control. These results did not alter the prospects for federal crypto legislation.
- •The only federal congressional race advanced to a Democratic runoff without filling the seat, and Republicans retained control of both chambers of Congress. The timeline for crypto legislation remains dependent on negotiations within the Senate Banking Committee.
- •The GENIUS Act, a stablecoin framework, became law in July with bipartisan support. The broader CLARITY Act market-structure package passed the House but still requires 60 Senate votes and cross-party compromise on specific DeFi language.
Democrats secured victories in both gubernatorial contests held on November 4, but these wins did not impact the trajectory of crypto legislation in Congress.
Mikie Sherrill successfully defended New Jersey for the Democratic party, while Abigail Spanberger flipped Virginia’s governorship from Republican to Democratic control.
Republicans did not win any gubernatorial races. In Virginia, Democrats also swept the lieutenant governor and attorney general positions, and expanded their majority in the House of Delegates to the low 60s.
Voters across California, Colorado, Maine, New York City, and Texas also cast ballots for local officials and considered various ballot measures.
Congressional Math Remained Stable
Only one federal race appeared on ballots this week, a special election for the Texas 18th District. This election advanced Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards to a runoff.
As no seat was filled in this election, and both runoff candidates are Democrats, the seat is expected to remain in Democratic hands.
Republicans maintained their control over both the House and the Senate for the 119th Congress.
The elections held this week did not alter the existing congressional dynamics for crypto legislation.
The immediate outlook for cryptocurrency bills remained unchanged as of November 4. While the Republicans’ narrow control kept the legislative calendar open for crypto priorities, the Senate’s supermajority rules and lingering Democratic reservations continued to be the decisive constraints.
GENIUS Act Showcased Some Bipartisan Support
The GENIUS Act established a federal framework for stablecoins. It cleared the Senate with a vote of 68-30 on June 17 and subsequently passed the House on July 17.
President Donald Trump signed the bill into law on July 18. This legislative success, which garnered significant bipartisan votes, was not affected by the recent election results.
The market-structure package, known as the CLARITY Act, passed the House with a vote of 294-134 on July 17 and was sent to the Senate on September 18.
Its progression now depends on the Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Senator Tim Scott. While Republicans were generally supportive, Democratic votes were still necessary to overcome a 60-vote filibuster threshold.
However, skepticism from some Democrats has slowed the legislative timeline. Reports in October indicated that the bill might be delayed if new compromises were not reached. The state election results on November 4 did not alter this legislative arithmetic.
Furthermore, staff from both parties in the Senate were actively involved in shaping discussions for a post-shutdown committee review of the House-passed CLARITY framework.
Multiple recent reports suggested that bipartisan talks had resumed, despite the ongoing government shutdown. The Senate was also pursuing parallel bipartisan initiatives.
Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand had renewed their collaborative efforts on crypto legislation over the summer, including a cross-party bill aimed at combating illicit finance.
The Senate Banking Committee held hearings specifically framed around "bipartisan legislative frameworks."
Challenges persisted, with October reports detailing strained discussions concerning the process for the market-structure bill and its specific language regarding Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Major outside groups, such as the AFL-CIO, expressed opposition to the Senate's draft, and while bipartisan votes remained possible, they were not yet secured.
Senator Lummis, in collaboration with Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott and Senators Bill Hagerty and Bernie Moreno, released a discussion draft for market structure legislation on July 22.
This draft established definitions, delineated the responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and proposed a registration pathway for crypto intermediaries. The draft was intended for committee discussion once the government shutdown standoff was resolved.
What Comes Next
The Senate's crypto legislation package remained under bipartisan negotiation. Staff were preparing for a committee discussion and a potential markup session once the government shutdown concluded.
Some legislative work continued during the shutdown period, but floor action was anticipated to be postponed until after a resolution on government funding.
The primary obstacle continued to be conflicts in language stemming from the stablecoin law enacted over the summer. Senators and industry negotiators indicated that these conflicts must be resolved before the broader market bill could advance.
Senate Republicans and Democrats had exchanged drafts and held numerous meetings, but the prospects for a vote before Thanksgiving diminished due to the shutdown.
Key senators have signaled their intention to expedite progress after the shutdown concluded. Public statements indicated that both the Banking and Agriculture committees would need to provide their approval.
Recent coverage also highlighted an intensified lobbying effort by cryptocurrency CEOs, with an end-of-year target for legislative action, although insiders cautioned that the timeline could still be subject to delays.
The Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) bill passed the House with a vote of 219-210 on the same day and was awaiting Senate action, along with a companion measure.
This bill had strong backing from Republicans and support from the administration, but it faced the same requirement of securing 60 votes in the Senate.
Its prospects hinged on gaining the support of some Democratic senators. Nothing from this week's elections altered this legislative path.
The narrow Republican control of the Senate kept the legislative calendar open for crypto priorities. However, the Senate's supermajority rules remained the decisive constraint on any legislation beyond stablecoins.
The next significant indicator will likely come from a Banking Committee markup session or a new bipartisan rewrite of crypto legislation, neither of which was affected by this week's elections.