Key Takeaways
- •Ethereum treasury companies are experiencing significant unrealized losses, raising questions about their financial stability.
- •A decline in the market value to net asset value (mNAV) for these companies suggests a loss of investor confidence, which could further pressure the price of ETH.
- •A repeating price pattern, or fractal, from 2022 indicates that ETH could face a substantial correction, with the 200-week moving average at $2,500 serving as a critical support level.
Ether Price Reflects a 2022 Bearish Fractal
Ether (ETH) has experienced a notable decline, falling 30% over the last 30 days and dropping below the $3,000 mark to a four-month low of $2,806. This downward trend is amplified by technical indicators and a perceived decrease in institutional demand, both of which suggest a heightened probability of a further price correction below $2,500.
The current price action of ETH appears to be mirroring a bearish pattern observed in 2022. Market fractals, which are recurring patterns in price charts, can offer insights into potential trend reversals. Ether is currently exhibiting a setup that was previously seen in 2022.
This pattern is characterized by a sharp decrease from its all-time high, with the price finding a temporary bottom around the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 2022 scenario saw ETH's price bottom out near this critical technical level.
A similar situation is unfolding in the current market. The price of ETH has dropped 41% from its recent all-time high of $4,955, reached in August. This suggests that a more significant correction may be on the horizon, with the 200-week SMA, currently situated at $2,450, acting as a crucial support level for buyers.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Ether's super trend indicator has issued a "sell" signal on its weekly chart. This signal has historically preceded significant price drops, as seen in March 2025 when it was followed by a 66% decrease in price.
A comparable signal in January 2022 preceded an even more substantial price drawdown of 82%, with the price bottoming out just below the 200-week SMA. This historical precedent reinforces the concern that ETH could experience a deeper correction.
If this historical pattern continues, ETH could see a significant correction, potentially falling to as low as $2,500. This downward pressure is likely to be exacerbated by decreased institutional demand and a slowdown in on-chain activity.
Ethereum Treasury Companies Face Significant Losses
The recent sharp decline in Ether's price has pushed the average Ethereum treasury company into a state of unrealized losses, amounting to millions of dollars.
Data from Capriole Investments indicates that these companies have experienced negative returns ranging from 25% to 48% on their Ether holdings. The top ten companies holding Ether as treasury assets are now showing losses across both weekly and daily timeframes.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, which holds a substantial 3.56 million ETH, representing 2.94% of the circulating supply, has seen its investment decline by -28% over the last seven days and -45% over the past 30 days.
Currently, BitMine is experiencing a paper loss of $1,000 per purchased ETH, translating to a cumulative unrealized loss of approximately $3.7 billion on its total holdings.
🚨 LATEST: BitMine is sitting on a $3.7B unrealized loss from its massive $ETH position.
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 20, 2025
Will we see more DATs emerge in the coming months despite the risks?
Other companies, including SharpLink, The Ether Machine, and Galaxy Digital, are also reporting substantial losses, with some down between 50% and 80% from their yearly highs.
Furthermore, data from Capriole Investments reveals a significant drop in the Market Value to Net Asset Value (mNAV) for many of these companies. A mNAV below 1 suggests that the market valuation of their Ether holdings is less than their net asset value, potentially impairing their ability to raise capital.
Data from StrategicETHreserve.xyz indicates a collective decrease of 280,414 ETH in the holdings of strategic reserves and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since November 11.
As previously reported, global exchange-traded products, including spot Ether ETFs in the United States, have experienced their largest weekly outflows since February. This trend further underscores the ongoing decline in institutional interest and demand for ETH.