Ether’s native token, Ether (ETH), has experienced a significant downturn in November, declining by nearly 20%. This monthly drop has pushed ETH from $3,900 to retesting the $3,000 level, a price point not seen since July 15. The current market conditions have placed ETH in a clearly defined daily downtrend, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This technical fragility persists despite emerging long-term accumulation signals.
Mayer Multiple Drops Below 1: A Historically Strong Accumulation Signal
One notable indicator signaling potential accumulation is Capriole Investments’ Mayer Multiple (MM). This metric calculates the ratio between Ether’s current price and its 200-day moving average. A reading below 1 signifies that Ether is trading at a discount relative to its long-term trend, a condition that has historically coincided with major accumulation zones.
The recent drop of ETH’s Mayer Multiple below 1, occurring for the first time since mid-June, has re-entered the token into the “buy zone.” This region has historically preceded significant multi-month recoveries for Ether.
Throughout Ether's history, readings below 1 have generally indicated long-term bottoms. The primary exception to this pattern was observed in January 2022, when the metric remained suppressed due to the commencement of a broader bear market.
Currently, the MM levels bear a resemblance to early-cycle reset conditions rather than the structural breakdown witnessed in 2022. This positions the current market environment closer to historical buying opportunities, distinguishing it from distribution or selling zones, which are typically observed when the MM exceeds 2.4.
Liquidity Resets, But Deeper Clusters Indicate Potential Volatility
Despite the emergence of macro accumulation patterns, short-term price action remains susceptible to volatility. Data from Hyblock Capital indicates that even after breaching the significant $3,000 psychological level, ETH continues to trade above several dense clusters of long liquidations.
Hyblock Capital noted, "We’ve swept quite a few large (bright) long liq clusters. The next two below on ETH are $2,904 to $2,916 and $2,760 to $2,772." This suggests that the market might require a further flush of liquidity to establish a durable base.
Further supporting this outlook, the analytics platform Altcoin Vector highlighted that Ether’s overall liquidity structure has undergone a complete reset. This condition has historically been present before every major bottoming phase. According to Altcoin Vector, liquidity collapses typically precede multi-week bottoming periods rather than immediate structural breakdowns.
Altcoin Vector also stated that the correction window remains open as long as liquidity continues to rebuild. If replenishment occurs in the upcoming weeks, ETH could potentially enter its next expansion phase. However, the longer it takes for liquidity to return, the more prolonged the price grind becomes, and the more structurally exposed ETH becomes to further downside risk.
