Ether (ETH) has demonstrated superior performance compared to Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of price action and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows this week, reinforcing the narrative of capital rotation within the cryptocurrency market. In the preceding two weeks, spot ETH ETFs garnered $360 million in net inflows, significantly outpacing BTC's $120 million, indicating a current shift in investor preference towards Ether.
Key Observations
- •Spot ETH ETFs have attracted three times more inflows than BTC ETFs, strengthening their relative momentum.
- •ETH's high-time-frame price action has surpassed that of Bitcoin, suggesting that Ether may have reached a bottom.
Retail Accumulation of Ether Continues, Potential for Further Pullback Exists
Data from CryptoQuant indicates a clear behavioral shift in Ether markets, as evidenced by the spot average order size metric. When ETH dipped below $2,700 on November 21, retail buyers intervened aggressively, triggering a sharp demand-led rebound. This pattern is reminiscent of prior accumulation phases, particularly the period between March and May, where early retail activity preceded a more substantial correction.
Historically, retail-driven bounces at local lows often precede a final liquidity revisit, a move designed to shake out late buyers before a more robust rally commences. This dynamic suggests that ETH might still present an opportunity for a controlled pullback, allowing for the resetting of positions and preparation for a more durable upward trend.
Ethereum's net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is currently positioned near 0.22, denoting a balanced market sentiment. This implies that investors are experiencing moderate profits without exhibiting signs of euphoria.
Crucially, the NUPL has not entered negative territory, which signifies that holders remain structurally strong, thereby reducing the likelihood of further selling pressure. As long as the NUPL remains above 0.20, market sentiment is expected to remain supportive of a rebound once the appropriate catalysts emerge.
ETH Surpasses Bitcoin in Current Market Dynamics
From a technical perspective, Ether has presented a cleaner high-time-frame (HTF) setup compared to Bitcoin. ETH recently confirmed a break of structure (BOS) by advancing to a 20-day high above $3,200, indicating that buyers have successfully converted prior resistance levels into support and initiated a trend shift.
In contrast, BTC still requires a decisive daily close above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout, placing ETH in a structurally advantageous position.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further reinforces this advantage. The pair has recently broken above a 30-day consolidation zone, a range where supply had consistently capped upside attempts.
This breakout was supported by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a key trend baseline that has held firm since July. Historically, periods where ETH/BTC reclaims the 200-day SMA and breaks a multi-week range have coincided with sustained ETH outperformance.
Should BTC stabilize above $94,000 and secure a close above $96,000, it would alleviate further overhead pressure for altcoins. In such a scenario, ETH is well-positioned to extend its newly established uptrend. This could involve retesting the $3,650 swing high and, if momentum accelerates, targeting the next expansion level at $3,900, which represents an additional 20% increase from current prices and aligns with clusters of external liquidity.