Market Exhaustion Signals Emerge
The capitulation drumbeat just got louder. Veteran chartist AltcoinSherpa dropped a stark warning on November 19, 2025: Ethereum and virtually every major altcoin have printed their first confirmed Daily Average Trader (DAT) top in three months—the same bearish exhaustion signal that marked the exact local high in late August before the September–October relief rally.
The DAT indicator, a volume-weighted momentum gauge beloved by institutional traders, flashes red when average daily participation peaks and begins rolling over. Side-by-side charts shared by Sherpa show eerie symmetry: ETH’s DAT crested on November 10 as price kissed $2,680, then rolled sharply lower while price bled to $2,380. Volume bars have now collapsed to levels last seen in early August, right before the previous 38% bounce. The identical rollover is visible across BTC, SOL, XRP, BNB, and the entire top-20 cohort. This isn’t random noise. August’s DAT top preceded a brutal 28% ETH drawdown that eventually bottomed near $1,950.
Sentiment and On-Chain Data Align with Fear
Today, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index frozen at 15 for a ninth consecutive day—the longest Extreme Fear streak since FTX 2022—the setup smells like déjà vu with extra pain. Bitcoin ETF outflows topped $1.1 billion this week, LTH-NUPL plunged into denial, and $1.4 billion in longs have been liquidated since November 10.
It's been ~3 months since $ETH and the DAT majors topped and ~6 months since $FARTCOIN and the first runners topped. pic.twitter.com/Qi91UKbVox
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) November 19, 2025
Yet history whispers opportunity. Every prior DAT top during Extreme Fear periods (June 2022, November 2022, August 2025) marked swing lows within 7–21 days. On-chain data reinforces the case: exchange ETH balances hit a 7-year low, Coinbase Premium flipped negative then violently green (whale accumulation), and stablecoin supply on exchanges jumped 3.2% in 72 hours—classic pre-reversal fuel.
Implications for the Market
Sherpa’s verdict was blunt: “~3 months since $ETH and the DAT majors topped and ~6 months since $FARTCOIN and the first runners topped.” Translation: the leaders are exhausted, but the soldiers are already dead. When the generals finally crack, the war often ends.
For now, the market is pricing in despair. But with DAT tops confirmed, volume evaporated, and fear at generational extremes, the countdown to violent relief has likely begun. The only question left: will the bounce start at $2,200 or $1,950? Place your bids accordingly.