- •Ethereum breached $4,424 invalidation, setting two competing paths: nested 1-2 structure or a corrective flat scenario.
- •Long/short ratios across major exchanges reveal strong bullish positioning, with top traders more aggressively long.
- •$4,800 remains the critical breakout level, with rejection risks pointing toward $3,600 if support fails.
Market Structure Shifts After Invalidation
Ethereum’s recent 4-hour chart review by analyst Nology (@nology3000) reflects a shift in technical outlook. The breach of the $4,424 invalidation level forced a revision of prior scenarios. According to the analyst, Ethereum is now positioned between two possible structures.
The preferred scenario is a nested 1-2 formation, suggesting the early phase of a larger impulsive sequence. This view anticipates that if price holds above support zones, the next wave could extend strongly higher. The alternative path is an impulse argument that also points upward, though with less structural depth compared to the nested count.
Resistance remains concentrated between $4,800 and $5,000. The chart shows horizontal supply zones in this corridor, with short-term momentum attempting to recover control. If Ethereum breaks and holds above this band, the bullish scenario gains credibility, opening space for continuation beyond $5,000.
Bearish Case and Risk Factors
The bearish alternative remains in play if Ethereum fails to clear the $4,800 threshold. Nology explained that the structure could represent a flat correction. In this setup, further downside would be expected after a short-lived rally.
A rejection at $4,800 would raise the possibility of a corrective drop toward the $3,600–$3,800 range. The chart highlights a red ellipse around this zone, marking it as a deeper target for a potential wave (ii). Traders are cautioned that shallow B-legs in flat corrections can mask further declines.
Support levels are mapped across red horizontal bands, which provide a cushion if price moves lower. These layers of demand could slow the decline, but without a confirmed breakout, downside risk remains. This is why Nology emphasizes that market participants must observe structure closely before committing to directional positions.
Sentiment and Trader Positioning
Beyond chart structure, derivatives data from Coinglass reveals consistent optimism. Ethereum trades at $4,485.53, posting a 2.21% 24‑hour gain and a 14.57% increase over seven days. The trend remains strong across timeframes, with a 15.85% rise in a week and 148.16% growth over 180 days.
Binance ETH/USDT long‑to‑short ratio by accounts is 1.5934, meaning most traders remain long. OKX shows a more moderate 1.25 ratio, while Binance top traders reveal heavier bias. Their long‑to‑short ratio reaches 1.9386 by accounts and 2.2841 by positions, signaling that larger players are more aggressively positioned for upside.
The alignment between retail and professional traders reinforces the bullish stance. Yet, one‑sided exposure can also create conditions for short‑term shakeouts. This implies that the $4,400 support area is a key area of stability. Ethereum may further rally to an altitude of $4,600‑$4,800 in the near future should it hold on.